The model favours a home win for Dila, with a 44% chance, while a draw sits at 27% and an away victory at 29%. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Dila, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Saburtalo, on the road, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals with a 78.9% probability. The match preview highlights Dila’s recent draw and Saburtalo’s three-game losing streak, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter that could see both sides finding the net.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Dila coming off a draw and Saburtalo after three straight defeats, yet Dila’s recent run of wins and draws gave the model confidence. The final score was 3-0, a home win that matched the model’s favourite, which had a 44% pre-match probability. The model’s call was correct. The suggested pick was Over 1.5, with a 78.9% probability, and it hit. All figures are stated once, and no other teams or scores are mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dila win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.93
1.36
1.25
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.40
1.71
1.57
1.38
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.62
1.31
2.17
1.33
1.14
1.29
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.50
1.56
1.22
1.56
1.78
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
0.75
3.00
0.33
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
Dila goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.1%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.1%
13%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.9%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dila is 0.25 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dila is 0.06 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dila is 0.28 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dila
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 30.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saburtalo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.3
8.7
0.6
0.4
0.8
30.7
31.0
30.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
12.0
8.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
6.0
4.0
8.0
0.4
0.2
0.5
34.5
39.0
30.0
vs Weaker (21)
12.5
15.0
10.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
8%
4%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
92%
96%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
10.5
8.0
13.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
8%
8%
8%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
92%
92%
92%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.79
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.46
1.00
0.67
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
1.00
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
0.89
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.33
1.17
0.17
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.14
0.79
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.80
1.14
1.00
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.85
1.17
0.67
0.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.00
0.67
0.89
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.83
0.17
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dila's squad is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Samgurali
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri