Dila vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

The match between Dila and Saburtalo is a tight one, with the odds almost level and no clear favourite until the model declares an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 33% for a Dila victory, 27% for a draw and 40% for Saburtalo to win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, but the single most probable total is two goals, with a 24% chance. The score that the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability.

Dila, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages one goal scored and 1.14 conceded. Saburtalo, on the road and also against a similar opponent, scores 1.43 on average while conceding only 0.86. The suggested pick from the model is an over 1.5 goal total, with an 80.1% probability.

In summary: home win 33%, draw 27%, away win 40%. The model’s selection is an over 1.5 goal total at 80.1%. The predicted scoreline is 1-1.

Dila entered the match on a shaky run, their last five games showing a loss followed by three wins, yet a recent defeat to Dinamo Tbilisi left them rattled. Saburtalo, on the other hand, had suffered four straight losses before a narrow 0-2 win over Gagra, but their away form still looked solid. The model had tipped an away win with a 40% probability, and the result was exactly that: Saburtalo edged Dila 0-1. The model’s favourite was right. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% chance, but it missed as the match produced just a single goal.