Dinamo Batumi hosts Gagra in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga. The recent form note suggests that Dinamo Batumi is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Dinamo Tbilisi. In contrast, Gagra is coming off a draw against Samgurali. The model's selection is the home win, indicating a slight edge for Dinamo Batumi in this matchup. The predicted match result is a home win, with Dinamo Batumi favored to win at a probability of 37%.
The expected total number of goals is 3.1, and the single most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring at a probability of 11.9%. Dinamo Batumi's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded versus weaker opponents, while Gagra's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded versus stronger opponents.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, which is highly likely at 82.7%, and potentially offers a 10% edge. The probabilities for the match result are 37% for Dinamo Batumi to win, 26% for a draw, and 37% for Gagra to win.
Results analysis
The draw between Dinamo Batumi and Gagra extends Dinamo Batumi's run of consecutive draws, having previously drawn with Gagra. The final score was 2-2, resulting in a draw. The pre-match favourite was a home win, with a probability of 37%, but the model's selection was incorrect. The model had suggested a home win, but the actual result did not match this prediction. The model's selection of a home win was wrong. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 82.7%, while the suggested pick of the most likely score, 2-1, missed, with a probability of 8.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Batumi win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.01
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
Dafabet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.20
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Gagra win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.32
Edge
+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.46
1xBet
3.42
Bet365
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.07
1.36
2.29
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
2.06
1.22
2.56
0.78
1.56
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
2.08
1.60
1.80
1.14
2.29
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.47
1.20
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (16)
1.31
1.75
1.29
1.43
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.21
1.62
1.00
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.25+10.3%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 3.29-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
888Sport
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.89+11.2%
Under 2.5
39.9%
@ 1.81-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 3.10+8.4%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.29-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.25
1xBet
3.08
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.3%
@ 1.71+9.5%
No
36.7%
@ 1.99-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
No
Superbet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 5.76+4.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 7.74+3.0%
1-2
8.4%@ 10.79+4.5%
2-2 ✓
6.5%@ 12.05+3.0%
1-0
5.9%@ 6.77-0.3%
0-1
5.8%@ 9.28+1.3%
0-0
5.5%@ 8.97+0.9%
2-0
5.4%@ 8.79+0.7%
Dinamo Batumi goals ↓
Gagra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.8%
5.4%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.9%
12%
8.4%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.4%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.8%
4.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Batumi goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Dinamo Batumi is 0.38 points better than Gagra in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Dinamo Batumi is 0.88 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Dinamo Batumi and Gagra are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
@ 1.71-51.1%
Under 9.5
96.8%
@ 2.03+51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.7%
Under 3.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.86
0.93
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.83
0.78
1.00
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.69
0.86
0.43
0.67
0.89
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.17
0.50
1.36
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.39
1.22
0.44
1.56
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
1.08
0.60
1.00
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.06
0.43
1.00
0.67
1.11
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
1.25
888Sport
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Dinamo Batumi's squad is €4m more valuable than Gagra's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Dinamo Batumi's attack is €2m more valuable than Gagra's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Gagra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Dinamo Batumi and Gagra have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →