Dinamo Batumi, riding a three-game winning streak, will look to extend their momentum against Saburtalo, who are coming off four consecutive defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 46% chance for Dinamo, 24% for a draw and 30% for Saburtalo. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total of three goals carries a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 10% chance. Dinamo’s home form shows 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against similar opposition, while Saburtalo’s away record is 1.62 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 87.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.7% and Under 11.5 corners at 72.8%.
Results analysis
Dinamo Batumi continued their three-game winning streak, extending a solid run that saw them beat Spaeri 3-0, while Saburtalo struggled after four straight defeats. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Dinamo edged Saburtalo 2-1. The pre-match probability for the home side was 46 percent, and the model’s selection hit. The only other suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 87.5 percent chance and also hit, fitting the 3-goal final tally. All figures align with the actual outcome, confirming the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Batumi win✓ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.23
2.14
1.29
1.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.38
1.86
1.57
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
1.07
2.43
1.00
2.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.13
2.00
1.07
1.93
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.50
1.25
1.50
1.62
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
0.71
2.86
0.57
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.8%
No
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1 ✓
8.9%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
5.8%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.5%
Dinamo Batumi goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
1.9%
0.7%
1
4.9%
10.0%
7.1%
3.7%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.7%
5.8%
4.5%
2.4%
0.9%
4
1.8%
2.8%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Batumi goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dinamo Batumi is 0.64 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dinamo Batumi is 0.69 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dinamo Batumi is 0.22 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
8.5
6.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
27.0
-
27.0
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
8.5
6.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
10.5
8.0
13.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
8%
8%
8%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
92%
92%
92%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.21
0.36
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
1.00
0.43
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.43
1.43
0.29
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.80
0.40
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.21
1.29
0.14
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
0.93
0.93
1.12
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
0.86
1.14
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.71
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.20
0.67
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.00
0.88
0.88
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.50
1.57
0.43
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Saburtalo have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Saburtalo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Saburtalo have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Samgurali
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri