Dinamo Batumi are the clear favorites, with a 59% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and only 18% for Torpedo Kutaisi to win. The match is expected to see an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11% chance that the teams will finish level. Dinamo’s home form shows they average two goals scored and 1.67 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Torpedo’s away record is 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 81.1% chance of over 1.5 goals, a hit. Dinamo’s recent run of three consecutive wins, including a 3-0 victory over Spaeri, and Torpedo’s recent draw after a 2-2 tie with Dila, add context to the predicted outcome. The model’s pick remains a home win.
Results analysis
Dinamo Batumi’s three-game winning streak was halted as the match ended 1-1, a draw that surprised many. The pre-match favourite was Dinamo Batumi, with a 59% probability of victory, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 81.1%, hit, confirming the match’s high-scoring nature. Dinamo Batumi had been in good form at home, averaging two goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Torpedo Kutaisi had been struggling away, averaging 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded. The final result of 1-1 ended Dinamo Batumi’s run and left the prediction model’s favourite disappointed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Batumi win✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.20
2.36
1.21
1.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (15)
2.53
1.00
2.62
0.88
2.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.03
1.19
1.06
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.29
0.88
0.88
1.17
1.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.81
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.0%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
8.9%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
5.1%
Dinamo Batumi goals ↓
Torpedo Kutaisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.9%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.6%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Batumi goals (down), columns = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dinamo Batumi is 0.39 points better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dinamo Batumi is 0.78 goals better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dinamo Batumi is 0.11 goals worse than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Batumi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
8.5
6.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
27.0
-
27.0
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
8.5
6.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.29
0.36
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.47
1.17
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.40
1.38
0.25
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.38
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.31
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.07
0.86
1.12
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.93
0.83
1.17
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.60
1.25
0.62
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.75
0.56
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Batumi and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila
Samgurali
Saburtalo
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri