Dinamo Minsk’s recent slump of two straight defeats is a stark contrast to Dinamo Brest’s shaky home record of LDLWW, and the Pythia model sees the away side as the clear favourite, rating an 65% chance of a win. The model’s pick is an away victory, driven by Minsk’s strong away form against weaker opponents, scoring 2.67 goals per game while conceding just one. Brest, meanwhile, struggles at home, with a lower scoring and conceding profile that the model reflects in the 15% home win probability and 21% draw probability. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2, with a 9.8% probability. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 92.7%, Under 23.5 fouls at 84.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 84.6% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 80.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 76.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.9%, and Under 21.5 fouls at 72.5%. The model therefore favours an away win with a 1-2 scoreline, a total of three goals, and a range of low-foul, high-card, and corner selections.
Results analysis
Dinamo Brest’s recent run of defeats left them struggling, while Dinamo Minsk’s form after two straight losses showed they were still fighting. The model’s favourite, an Away win, was correct as the final score read 1-3, confirming the predicted outcome. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 65%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.6% probability, hit as the match produced three goals. All other suggested picks were listed, but only this one was included in the data. The prediction model delivered a precise forecast, with the favoured result and the key selection both materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
64.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.60
1.36
1.71
0.81
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.64
1.42
1.92
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.27
1.07
2.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.00
1.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.54
1.04
2.42
1.08
2.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
0-1
7.8%
1-3 ✓
7.4%
0-3
7.4%
2-2
4.9%
0-0
4.7%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
7.8%
9.8%
7.4%
4.2%
1
3.0%
9.5%
9.8%
7.4%
4.2%
2
1.9%
4.4%
4.9%
3.7%
2.1%
3
0.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.2%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 1.39 points worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 2.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 1.39 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Dinamo Brest is 1.04 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
For 6.9 · Against 6.6 · Total 13.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
For 6.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.2
1.7
1.8
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
-
11.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
11.3
10.9
11.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
11.2
14.0
8.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
74%
73%
75%
22%
29%
15%
-
-
-
% under line
26%
27%
25%
78%
71%
85%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.3
9.4
1.8
2.2
1.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
10.4
11.7
9.5
2.7
2.8
2.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (40)
10.3
11.2
9.3
1.6
2.0
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
70%
86%
54%
32%
38%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
30%
14%
46%
68%
62%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.3
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Slavia Mozyr
11.2
Belshina
11.0
Bate Borisov
10.6
Smorgon
10.6
FC Gomel
10.1
Dinamo Minsk
10.0
FC Slutsk
9.9
Torpedo Zhodino
9.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.7
FC Minsk
9.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Neman
9.3
FC Vitebsk
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Minsk
5.1
Dinamo Minsk
5.0
Belshina
4.9
Neman
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.6
Torpedo Zhodino
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Smorgon
4.2
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.1
FC Gomel
4.1
Naftan
4.1
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.9
FC Slutsk
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.7%
Under 9.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.1%
Under 3.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
27.5%
Under 21.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.93
1.00
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.84
1.00
1.17
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
1.00
0.27
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.12
0.33
1.17
0.25
1.08
0.42
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.43
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.80
0.42
0.75
0.23
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.27
0.80
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.42
0.71
1.25
0.83
1.58
0.58
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€7m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest's midfield is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Bate Borisov
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
FC Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Smorgon
Naftan
Belshina
FC Vitebsk