The model favours an away win, with Dinamo Minsk holding a 44% chance, while a home victory and a draw each sit at 28%. Dinamo Minsk’s recent away form against weaker opposition shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, suggesting a potent attack and a tight defence. Dinamo Brest’s home form is not specified in the data, so no comparative figures can be offered. The expected total goals for the match is 2.6, with the most likely total of 2 goals carrying a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 13.6% chance.
The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 89.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 78.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.2%, and Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages and each selection is listed with its corresponding figure.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, fell short as Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk settled for a 1-1 draw, extending Dinamo Brest’s run of defeats. The model’s pick of an away victory, with a 44% probability, proved wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s predicted draw probability of 28%. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 89.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 78.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, and Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick was reported with its outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.27
2.40
1.07
1.87
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
2.19
1.26
2.50
1.00
1.85
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.67
1.44
0.38
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
1.25
0.75
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.87
0.20
1.78
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.1%
Dinamo Brest goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.8%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.2%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
4.8%
7.0%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Brest goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Dinamo Brest is 0.63 points worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 2.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.40 goals better than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (2.07 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Dinamo Brest is 0.80 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Brest
For 6.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
For 3.2 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.6
11.4
2.6
2.7
2.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
-
11.0
1.3
0.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.6
11.9
11.5
2.8
3.0
2.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
18.0
18.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
75%
83%
34%
42%
27%
-
-
-
% under line
20%
25%
17%
66%
58%
73%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.3
9.8
2.3
2.3
2.4
22.8
23.5
22.3
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
9.0
9.0
2.0
2.7
1.0
22.0
29.0
15.0
vs Similar (12)
9.7
7.0
11.0
2.7
1.7
3.7
23.3
18.0
26.0
vs Weaker (33)
8.7
8.5
9.0
2.2
2.4
2.1
-
-
-
% over line
36%
33%
40%
34%
38%
29%
60%
50%
67%
% under line
64%
67%
60%
66%
62%
71%
40%
50%
33%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.3
Dinamo Brest
11.4
FC Gomel
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.7
Torpedo Zhodino
10.6
FC Slutsk
10.0
Dinamo Minsk
9.9
Slavia Mozyr
9.9
Smorgon
9.8
Neman
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.2
FC Minsk
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Smorgon
4.0
Slavia Mozyr
3.9
Bate Borisov
3.8
Naftan
3.7
FC Gomel
3.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
3.7
Dinamo Brest
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Minsk
3.5
Dinamo Minsk
3.3
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.1
Torpedo Zhodino
3.1
FC Slutsk
3.1
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Neman
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
22.8
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.9%
Under 9.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.13
0.27
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
0.48
1.21
0.14
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.75
0.19
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.30
0.75
0.25
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.13
0.78
0.00
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.27
0.80
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
0.78
1.29
0.86
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.69
0.19
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.07
1.00
0.00
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Dinamo Brest's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€7m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Brest's midfield is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Dinamo Brest and Dinamo Minsk have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Naftan
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva