Dinamo Ferizaj, coming off a win, will host Trepça Mitrovicë in a matchup expected to produce 3.2 goals on average. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 10.5% of the time. Dinamo Ferizaj, at home, has scored an average of 2.07 goals against weaker opponents, conceding 1.0. Meanwhile, Trepça Mitrovicë, away from home, has scored 0 goals against stronger opponents, but conceded 1.0.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 58% chance of occurrence. Dinamo Ferizaj has a 58% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of losing. The model's picks include Over 1.5, with an 83.9% chance, Home or Draw, with an 80.7% chance, and Home or Away, with a 77.2% chance.
Results analysis
Dinamo Ferizaj’s 2-game winning run continued as they thumped Trepça Mitrovicë 5-0, confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 58 % probability and was right. The model’s selections performed impressively: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2 %, Under 6.5 at 95.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.5 %, Home +2 handicap at 92.4 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 89.5 %. All picks settled as hit, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Ferizaj win✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.20
2.07
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.92
1.15
2.08
1.00
1.77
1.31
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.97
1.53
2.00
1.33
1.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.50
3.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.92
1.67
1.83
1.58
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.1%
Under 2.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
Dinamo Ferizaj goals ↓
Trepça Mitrovicë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.4%
10%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.0%
6.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Ferizaj goals (down), columns = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Dinamo Ferizaj is 1.09 points better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Dinamo Ferizaj is 0.35 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Dinamo Ferizaj is 0.68 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Ferizaj or Draw✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Dinamo Ferizaj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj or Trepça Mitrovicë✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Dinamo Ferizaj + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trepça Mitrovicë✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Ferizaj, so a minus line means Dinamo Ferizaj give that many goals of a start and Trepça Mitrovicë receive them. At -1, Dinamo Ferizaj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Ferizaj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.71
0.69
0.77
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.8%
Under 1.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
0.93
0.33
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.15
0.58
1.08
0.23
1.23
0.92
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.73
0.87
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.08
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.5%
Under 0.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.4%
Under 1.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
22.9%
Under 2.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vëllaznimi
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Prishtina e Re
Istogu
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj
Tefik Canga