Dinamo Minsk are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% probability. Dinamo Minsk have been prolific at home against weaker opposition, scoring 1.82 goals per game while conceding only 0.55, whereas Dinamo Brest have struggled away, failing to score in their last five matches and conceding one goal on average against stronger opponents. The probabilities for the match result are 48% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 25% for an away win. Suggested picks from the model include Under 5.5 cards at 92.9%, Under 4.5 cards at 83.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.0%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.3% and Under 3.5 corners at 71.0%. Dinamo Minsk’s recent form shows a dip after two straight defeats, while Dinamo Brest are coming off a loss but have two wins in their last five.
Results analysis
Dinamo Minsk’s recent run of two straight defeats had cast doubt on their form, yet the Pythia model’s prediction of a home win proved spot on. The final score of 5-0 confirmed the favoured outcome, with the team’s home form showing a strong 1.82 average goals scored and only 0.55 conceded. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 48% probability and was correct. All suggested selections were settled: Under 5.5 cards hit at 92.9%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 83.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.6%, while Under 3.5 missed at 71.0%. The result matched the model’s expectations across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.03
1.60
0.73
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.12
1.00
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.80
1.82
0.55
1.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.17
1.81
0.94
1.93
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
2.08
1.12
2.08
0.77
2.08
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.2%
Dinamo Minsk goals ↓
Dinamo Brest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.1%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.5%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.5%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Minsk goals (down), columns = Dinamo Brest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Dinamo Minsk is 0.33 points better than Dinamo Brest in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Dinamo Minsk is 0.28 goals better than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Dinamo Minsk is 0.10 goals better than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Minsk
For 5.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 10.1 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.0
11.6
2.8
2.6
3.0
25.0
27.0
23.8
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
9.0
10.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
22.3
29.0
19.0
vs Similar (13)
10.0
9.0
11.0
3.1
2.8
3.3
26.0
26.0
26.0
vs Weaker (31)
15.0
-
15.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
29.0
-
29.0
% over line
50%
33%
60%
42%
42%
42%
75%
67%
80%
% under line
50%
67%
40%
58%
58%
58%
25%
33%
20%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.3
11.8
2.8
2.5
3.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
1.8
1.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.6
11.3
11.8
3.0
2.8
3.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.5
1.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
67%
75%
36%
27%
46%
-
-
-
% under line
29%
33%
25%
64%
73%
54%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Naftan
13.2
Dinamo Brest
12.8
FC Gomel
12.1
Bate Borisov
11.4
FC Slutsk
11.4
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Slavia Mozyr
10.5
Torpedo Zhodino
10.4
Smorgon
9.7
FC Minsk
9.6
Neman
9.4
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.9
Smorgon
3.8
Bate Borisov
3.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.4
Naftan
3.4
FC Minsk
3.3
Dinamo Brest
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
FC Slutsk
2.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Neman
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.7
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Bate Borisov
20.7
FC Minsk
13.0
Neman
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.8%
Under 9.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.3%
Under 21.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.60
0.35
0.73
0.27
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.88
0.25
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
0.31
1.00
0.08
1.15
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.93
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
0.45
1.09
0.27
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.94
0.69
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.81
1.08
0.69
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk's squad is €2m more valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk and Dinamo Brest have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk's midfield is €1m more valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk and Dinamo Brest have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ML Vitebsk
Slavia Mozyr
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina