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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Vs
73%
17%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi win✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra win✓ Hit
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W52W22D30W32W11D22D10W31W23LA·GAG13/08H·SAM19/08A·TEL25/08A·DIL29/08A·SHU02/09H·TOR16/09A·DIN24/09H·SAB29/09H·DIL03/10A·SAM07/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.472.071.332.201.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.741.631.501.702.001.56
vs Weaker (11)2.821.183.200.602.501.67
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D16L14L02L05L00D13L10W22D41WH·SAM05/08H·DIN13/08A·TOR20/08H·DIN27/08A·SAB02/09H·DIL16/09A·SAM23/09H·SHU27/09A·SAM02/10H·TEL08/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.901.131.730.872.07
vs Stronger (15)0.602.530.752.380.432.71
vs Similar (12)1.501.171.831.001.171.33
vs Weaker (3)1.001.670.001.001.502.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.8%
1-0
7.1%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
5.2%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Gagra goals →
01234
03.7%2.0%1.2%0.4%0.1%
17.1%7.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
210%9.2%4.2%1.3%0.3%
38.8%8.0%3.6%1.1%0.2%
45.7%5.2%2.3%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.92 points better than Gagra in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.28 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.31).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.44 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.81).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

For 5.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1101015465119110H·HAMA·HAMH·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

100114621000H·HAMA·HAMH·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 25.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

25016925H·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GagraGagra

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.211.06.30.30.10.525.025.0-
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (29)8.211.06.30.60.10.925.025.0-
vs Weaker (21)---0.00.00.0---
% over line60%100%33%4%0%8%100%100%-
% under line40%0%67%96%100%92%0%0%-
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (19)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (3)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W21W11D00D02L10W11D10W30W01LA·GAG13/08H·SAM19/08A·TEL25/08A·DIL29/08A·SHU02/09H·TOR16/09A·DIN24/09H·SAB29/09H·DIL03/10A·SAM07/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.070.400.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.631.100.500.440.78
vs Weaker (11)1.180.551.000.201.330.83
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L02L00D02L00D13L00D10W20WH·SAM05/08H·DIN13/08A·TOR20/08H·DIN27/08A·SAB02/09H·DIL16/09A·SAM23/09H·SHU27/09A·SAM02/10H·TEL08/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.000.470.870.401.13
vs Stronger (15)0.201.400.251.380.141.43
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.830.330.500.67
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W11D30W30W01L11D00D01L22DA·GAG13/08H·SAM19/08A·TEL25/08A·DIL29/08A·SHU02/09H·TOR16/09A·DIN24/09H·SAB29/09H·DIL03/10A·SAM07/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.871.000.931.400.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.951.000.401.201.560.78
vs Weaker (11)1.640.642.200.401.170.83
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L12L02L03L00D00D10W12L21WH·SAM05/08H·DIN13/08A·TOR20/08H·DIN27/08A·SAB02/09H·DIL16/09A·SAM23/09H·SHU27/09A·SAM02/10H·TEL08/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.670.870.470.93
vs Stronger (15)0.401.130.501.000.291.29
vs Similar (12)0.830.671.000.670.670.67
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.001.000.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✗ Miss
Home win73.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's squad is €4m more valuable than Gagra's (€7m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's attack is €2m more valuable than Gagra's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €2m more valuable than Gagra's (€3m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
DT wins
1
Draws
1
GAG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23AGagra Vs DT1-6
06/05/23HDT Vs Gagra0-0
08/03/23AGagra Vs DT3-5
03/12/22HDT Vs Gagra2-1
18/09/22AGagra Vs DT0-1
20/06/22HDT Vs Gagra5-0
23/04/22AGagra Vs DT1-0

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23ASamtredia Vs DT3-2
03/10/23HDT Vs Dila3-1
29/09/23HDT Vs Saburtalo1-0
24/09/23ADinamo Batumi Vs DT2-2
16/09/23HDT Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-1
02/09/23AShukura Vs DT2-3
29/08/23ADila Vs DT0-3
25/08/23ATelavi Vs DT2-2
19/08/23HDT Vs Samgurali5-2
13/08/23AGagra Vs DT1-6

GagraGagra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23HGAG Vs Telavi4-1
02/10/23ASamgurali Vs GAG2-2
27/09/23HGAG Vs Shukura1-0
23/09/23ASamtredia Vs GAG3-1
16/09/23HGAG Vs Dila0-0
02/09/23ASaburtalo Vs GAG5-0
27/08/23HGAG Vs Dinamo Batumi0-2
20/08/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAG4-1
13/08/23HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-6
05/08/23HGAG Vs Samgurali0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL2.02
HomeLWDWW2.04
AwayDWWDL2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.343.333.35
Over 1.5 %86%83%88%
Over 2.5 %70%71%69%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored2.202.332.08
Conceded1.141.001.27
BTTS66%58%73%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners8.2011.006.33
Cards3.201.004.67
Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW0.96
HomeLLDWW1.08
AwayWLLLD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%24%20%
AVG goals2.702.722.68
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.001.160.84
Conceded1.701.561.84
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3674
58%
2.1
8341+42
3.4
94%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.31.1
-
2Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3671
58%
2.0
9349+44
3.9
92%
81%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.61.4
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3660
44%
1.7
5537+18
2.6
67%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.51.0
-
4DilaDila3660
47%
1.7
5639+17
2.6
72%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.1
-
5SamguraliSamgurali3657
44%
1.6
5351+2
2.9
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.4
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3651
39%
1.4
5849+9
3.0
78%
72%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.61.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3841
29%
1.1
3963-24
2.7
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8GagraGagra3638
28%
1.1
4765-18
3.1
64%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
9SamtrediaSamtredia3836
26%
0.9
5566-11
3.2
82%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10ShukuraShukura3617
11%
0.5
38112-74
4.2
89%
75%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.1
-
11GarejiGareji23
50%
1.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
12SpaeriSpaeri21
0%
0.5
15-4
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.52.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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