Dinamo Tbilisi are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 57% chance, a 27% draw and a 16% chance for Meshakhte. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 for Dinamo, a 13.5% probability. Dinamo’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring 2.33 goals and conceding 1.67, while Meshakhte, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 99.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Under 6.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6%, Under 10.5 corners at 98.5% and Under 9.5 corners at 96.6%. Dinamo have won their last five, finishing with a 2-1 win over Dila, while Meshakhte also come off a win, 2-0 against Torpedo Kutaisi. The match is expected to be a tight affair with Dinamo edging the result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi win
55.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte win
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.20
1.80
1.27
1.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.06
1.44
1.00
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.38
2.33
1.67
2.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.07
1.13
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
11.8%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Meshakhte goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.0%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
13%
4.5%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.3%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.3%
5.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Meshakhte goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.64 points better than Meshakhte in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.70 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.29 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Meshakhte
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
5.0
-
5.0
0.8
0.0
1.4
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.4%
Under 9.5
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
81.7%
Under 3.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Tbilisi or Draw
82.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Dinamo Tbilisi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi or Meshakhte
72.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Dinamo Tbilisi + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Meshakhte
44.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Draw + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Tbilisi, so a minus line means Dinamo Tbilisi give that many goals of a start and Meshakhte receive them. At -1, Dinamo Tbilisi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Tbilisi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dinamo Tbilisi)
Dinamo Tbilisi -2
13.2%
Draw -2
17.6%
Meshakhte +2
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dinamo Tbilisi)
Dinamo Tbilisi -1
30.8%
Draw -1
24.9%
Meshakhte +1
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dinamo Tbilisi)
Dinamo Tbilisi +1
82.9%
Draw +1
11.6%
Meshakhte -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dinamo Tbilisi)
Dinamo Tbilisi +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.2%
Meshakhte -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.41
0.56
0.67
0.75
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.33
0.67
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.33
0.47
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
1.33
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.7%
Under 0.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.9%
Under 1.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
Under 2.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.89
0.33
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.54
1.00
1.00
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
Under 1.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.6%
Under 2.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
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Over 1.5
70.3%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Dinamo Tbilisi's squad is €5m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€7m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Dinamo Tbilisi's attack is €2m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Meshakhte have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €3m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€3m vs €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri