Dinamo Tbilisi, on a 3-game winning run, are favourites to beat Rustavi at home. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, suggesting an open match. Dinamo Tbilisi's recent form has seen them scoring 1.89 goals per game at home, conceding 0.67, while Rustavi's away form has seen them scoring 1.67 goals per game against similar opponents, conceding 0.83.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%. Dinamo Tbilisi have a 59% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing. The model's selection is home win. The model also suggests Over 1.5, which has an 82% probability. Dinamo Tbilisi's home scoring and conceding rates are strong, while Rustavi's away scoring and conceding rates are similar to those of Dinamo Tbilisi's opponents.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Rustavi defeated Dinamo Tblisi 0-3, extending their winning run to three games. This result was a major surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Dinamo Tblisi, did not come through. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's call was wrong.
In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 82.3%, as the final score was 0-3. The model also missed on the most likely total goals, which was 2, and the most likely scores, which included 1-1, 2-1 and 2-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi win✗ Miss
60.3%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.06
Edge
+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
Dafabet
2.12
SBO
2.06
Betfair
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.11
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Dafabet
3.10
Rustavi win✓ Hit
17.1%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.25
Edge
-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Marathonbet
3.42
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.10
2.00
1.07
1.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.57
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.20
1.27
2.38
1.38
2.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.77
1.93
0.53
1.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.75
0.82
1.86
0.57
1.64
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.30+12.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 3.03-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.19
888Sport
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
@ 2.00+13.4%
Under 2.5
40.5%
@ 1.71-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
SBO
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 3.35+10.0%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.25-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.50
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.78+5.8%
No
43.1%
@ 1.87-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
No
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 5.70+3.2%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.09+4.7%
2-0
9.7%@ 8.93+5.0%
1-0
8.5%@ 6.41+1.8%
3-1
6.8%@ 15.97+4.2%
3-0
6.7%@ 16.80+4.1%
0-0
5.5%@ 8.07+0.3%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.24+1.9%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Rustavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.5%
11%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.7%
6.8%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Rustavi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.23 points worse than Rustavi in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.95 goals better than Rustavi in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.96 goals worse than Rustavi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rustavi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.7
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Saburtalo
5.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
46.0
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
@ 2.10-41.1%
Under 9.5
96.8%
@ 1.67+41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.5%
Under 3.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.27
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.80
1.50
0.62
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
1.00
0.20
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.25
0.93
0.21
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.29
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.47
0.88
0.75
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rustavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rustavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.33
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Dinamo Tbilisi's squad is €4m more valuable than Rustavi's (€7m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Dinamo Tbilisi's attack is €2m more valuable than Rustavi's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Rustavi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €2m more valuable than Rustavi's (€3m vs €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte
Spaeri