Dinamo Tbilisi are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 69% chance to a home win and ranking that outcome as the most likely result. Their recent form - five matches with four wins - shows they are coming off a victory, while Saburtalo, after four straight defeats, are struggling away. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively match, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 11.9% chance of a 2-0 scoreline. Dinamo’s home attack averages 2.71 goals per game against similar opponents, and they concede just one on average, whereas Saburtalo’s away offense averages only 0.86 goals and they concede two. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals at 81.7%. Home win 69%, draw 20%, away win 11%. The only selection offered is Over 1.5 with 81.7%.
Results analysis
The upset came as Dinamo Tbilisi, the pre-match favourite with a 69% chance of victory, fell to a 1-3 loss to Saburtalo. The model’s call was wrong, but its single other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 81.7%, hit as the match produced four goals. Dinamo had been coming off a win, their recent form noted as WLWWW, yet Saburtalo, after four straight defeats, turned the tables. The final score of 1-3 confirmed the away win, contradicting the 69% home win probability. The model’s prediction of a 2-0 win was also missed, as the game ended with a 1-3 result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi win✗ Miss
69.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✓ Hit
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
0.97
2.93
0.64
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.12
2.71
1.00
1.67
1.22
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
0.79
3.14
0.29
2.00
1.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.50
1.56
1.19
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.81
0.89
1.67
0.86
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.50
1.00
2.67
0.67
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.6%
4-0
5.0%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
3.0%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.7%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.9%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
5.0%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.56 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.97 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
For 3.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
8.0
6.0
10.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
8.0
6.0
10.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
100%
0%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
10.5
8.0
13.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
8%
8%
9%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
92%
92%
91%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.14
0.07
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.14
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.36
1.57
0.00
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.00
0.62
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.81
0.67
0.89
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.47
1.79
0.57
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
0.50
2.00
0.86
1.00
0.22
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.43
1.57
0.29
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.56
0.56
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
1.00
0.22
0.78
0.43
1.29
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.58
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €1m more valuable than Saburtalo's (€3m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Samgurali
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri