Dinamo Tbilisi vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of taking the match home, while a draw sits at 25% and Saburtalo’s victory also at 25%. The model expects 3.1 goals on average, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3% chance. Dinamo, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Saburtalo on the road averages 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, has an 83.2% probability. Dinamo’s recent run of five matches shows four wins and a win over Dila 2-1, while Saburtalo’s last five include four defeats and a 0-2 loss to Gagra. The expected outcome is a Dinamo win, 1-1 the most likely score, with an overall goal count of three. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, stands at 83.2%.

Dinamo Tbilisi’s recent run of four wins and one loss carries them into the match, while Saburtalo’s four defeats in a row have left them struggling. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win, matching the model’s pick of a home win with a 51% probability, so the model’s call was correct. The expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely total of three were far from reality, as only one goal was scored. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at an 83.2% probability, missed, with the match ending below that threshold.