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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Samgurali Result & Analysis

Date: 19/08/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 5-2
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Vs
54%
24%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi, riding a five-match run that includes a win over Dila, will host Samgurali in a match that the model deems likely to produce a high-scoring affair. The projected average of 3.2 goals and the most probable total of three, with a 22% chance, point to plenty of action. Dinamo’s home form shows they average 2.57 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded against weaker opposition, while Samgurali, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.29 goals scored and concedes 2.0. The model’s pick is a home win, with probabilities of 54% for Dinamo, 24% for a draw and 22% for Samgurali. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.8% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection at 84%. These figures together paint a picture of a match where Dinamo’s offensive prowess and Samgurali’s defensive vulnerabilities should combine for a lively contest.

Results analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi continued their strong run, extending a streak of wins after a 2-1 victory over Dila, while Samgurali entered the match on a draw from 1-1 against Rustavi. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 54% probability, and it proved correct as Dinamo triumphed 5-2. The prediction of a 3-goal total fell short, but the model’s single selection - Over 1.5 goals - hit, with an 84% chance. All other suggested picks were settled, and the final score confirmed the home side’s dominance. The model’s forecast largely matched reality, delivering a reliable outcome for the match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi win✓ Hit
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali win✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-644D32W12L12L30W11D12L12L01L61WH·SHU20/05A·TOR24/05H·DIN28/05A·SAB01/06H·SAM05/06A·FC 12/07H·FC 19/07A·HAM25/07H·HAM03/08A·GAG13/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.372.071.272.271.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.751.811.622.001.881.62
vs Weaker (14)2.640.862.570.432.711.29
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W21W31W11D15L22D20W22D00D01LA·TEL06/05H·DIN10/05A·TOR14/05H·DIN20/05A·SAB24/05H·DIL28/05A·SAM01/06A·SHU06/06A·GAG05/08H·TEL12/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.271.471.001.601.53
vs Stronger (15)1.271.671.251.381.292.00
vs Similar (13)1.770.921.670.501.861.29
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Samgurali goals →
01234
05.0%3.9%3.0%1.2%0.4%
17.1%11%5.9%2.4%0.7%
28.0%9.8%5.9%2.4%0.7%
35.3%6.5%3.9%1.6%0.5%
42.7%3.2%2.0%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Samgurali goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.39 points better than Samgurali in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.11 goals better than Samgurali in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.06 goals better than Samgurali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.42).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

For 5.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.8

🚩 Corners

1101015465119110H·HAMA·HAMH·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

100114621000H·HAMA·HAMH·FC A·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 25.0

⚠️ Fouls

25016925H·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SamguraliSamgurali

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)7.89.36.30.30.10.625.025.0-
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (28)7.89.36.30.60.11.025.025.0-
vs Weaker (22)---0.00.00.0---
% over line50%67%33%4%0%8%100%100%-
% under line50%33%67%96%100%92%0%0%-
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L10W11D00D00D01L10W00D01L41WH·SHU20/05A·TOR24/05H·DIN28/05A·SAB01/06H·SAM05/06A·FC 12/07H·FC 19/07A·HAM25/07H·HAM03/08A·GAG13/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.570.930.401.000.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.750.750.880.750.620.75
vs Weaker (14)1.210.361.000.001.430.71
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W11D01L00D00D02L00D00DA·TEL06/05H·DIN10/05A·TOR14/05H·DIN20/05A·SAB24/05H·DIL28/05A·SAM01/06A·SHU06/06A·GAG05/08H·TEL12/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.500.400.400.530.60
vs Stronger (15)0.530.530.500.500.570.57
vs Similar (13)0.460.540.330.330.570.71
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D01L12L30W10W02L12L00D20WH·SHU20/05A·TOR24/05H·DIN28/05A·SAB01/06H·SAM05/06A·FC 12/07H·FC 19/07A·HAM25/07H·HAM03/08A·GAG13/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.801.130.871.270.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.001.060.751.251.250.88
vs Weaker (14)1.430.501.570.431.290.57
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D11D00D14L22D20W20W00D01LA·TEL06/05H·DIN10/05A·TOR14/05H·DIN20/05A·SAB24/05H·DIL28/05A·SAM01/06A·SHU06/06A·GAG05/08H·TEL12/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.070.601.070.93
vs Stronger (15)0.731.130.750.880.711.43
vs Similar (13)1.310.381.330.171.290.57
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's squad is €4m more valuable than Samgurali's (€7m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's attack is €2m more valuable than Samgurali's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Samgurali have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €2m more valuable than Samgurali's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
DT wins
2
Draws
2
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Samgurali · H/A from DT
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/23ASamgurali Vs DT2-1
13/03/23HDT Vs Samgurali2-0
26/11/22ASamgurali Vs DT1-1
10/09/22HDT Vs Samgurali3-0
16/06/22ASamgurali Vs DT2-1
18/04/22HDT Vs Samgurali0-0

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23AGagra Vs DT1-6
03/08/23HDT Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
25/07/23AHamrun Spartans Vs DT2-1
19/07/23HDT Vs FC Astana1-2
12/07/23AFC Astana Vs DT1-1
05/06/23HDT Vs Samtredia3-0
01/06/23ASaburtalo Vs DT2-1
28/05/23HDT Vs Dinamo Batumi1-2
24/05/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs DT2-3
20/05/23HDT Vs Shukura4-4

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23HSAM Vs Telavi0-1
05/08/23AGagra Vs SAM0-0
06/06/23AShukura Vs SAM2-2
01/06/23ASamtredia Vs SAM0-2
28/05/23HSAM Vs Dila2-2
24/05/23ASaburtalo Vs SAM5-1
20/05/23HSAM Vs Dinamo Batumi1-1
14/05/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAM1-3
10/05/23HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-1
06/05/23ATelavi Vs SAM0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.98
HomeDLWLL1.96
AwayWLDLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%60%60%
AVG goals3.283.483.08
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %68%76%60%
Over 3.5 %36%44%28%
Scored2.162.441.88
Conceded1.121.041.20
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners7.839.336.33
Cards3.201.004.67
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDL1.72
HomeWWDDL2.04
AwayWLWDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals2.802.672.92
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %58%67%50%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.581.711.46
Conceded1.220.961.46
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3674
58%
2.1
8341+42
3.4
94%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.31.1
-
2Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3671
58%
2.0
9349+44
3.9
92%
81%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.61.4
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3660
44%
1.7
5537+18
2.6
67%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.51.0
-
4DilaDila3660
47%
1.7
5639+17
2.6
72%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.1
-
5SamguraliSamgurali3657
44%
1.6
5351+2
2.9
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.4
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3651
39%
1.4
5849+9
3.0
78%
72%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.61.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3841
29%
1.1
3963-24
2.7
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8GagraGagra3638
28%
1.1
4765-18
3.1
64%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
9SamtrediaSamtredia3836
26%
0.9
5566-11
3.2
82%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10ShukuraShukura3617
11%
0.5
38112-74
4.2
89%
75%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.1
-
11GarejiGareji23
50%
1.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
12SpaeriSpaeri21
0%
0.5
15-4
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.52.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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