The match is a tight one, with the model favouring a Dinamo Tirana victory. Dinamo have come off a win against Skenderbeu Korce and are looking to build on that momentum, while AF Elbasani are fresh from a draw with Vllaznia Shkodër. The probabilities are almost evenly split: a 41% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw, and 29% for an away win. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of goals is 2.4, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at a 14.3% probability. Dinamo’s home form shows they average 1.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded against similar opponents, whereas AF Elbasani’s away record is 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded. The only suggested selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.9% probability. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Dinamo Tirana’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Skenderbeu Korce, kept the home side on a positive run as they faced AF Elbasani, who had just drawn with Vllaznia Shkodër. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 41% probability, and the prediction proved correct as Dinamo secured a 3-1 victory. The expected total of 2.4 goals was surpassed, with the final tally of three goals. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, at 78.9%, missed its mark, as the match exceeded that threshold. Overall, the model’s call for a home triumph was validated, while its over-under choice fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tirana win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.03
1.40
0.80
1.20
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.07
1.36
0.86
1.21
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.03
1.87
0.87
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.13
1.45
1.09
1.25
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
3.14
0.71
3.00
0.25
3.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.8%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
Dinamo Tirana goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.0%
8.4%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tirana goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
Dinamo Tirana is 0.06 points better than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
Dinamo Tirana is 0.23 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
Dinamo Tirana is 0.13 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.53
0.13
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.14
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.71
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.20
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.48
1.00
0.45
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.57
1.75
0.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Dinamo Tirana's squad is €1m more valuable than AF Elbasani's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Vllaznia Shkodër
Partizani
Teuta Durrës
Bylis
Tirana
Skenderbeu Korce
Laci