Dinamo Tirana are favoured to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of AF Elbasani taking the victory. The model expects an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total at 26%, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Dinamo, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while AF Elbasani, on the road, averages 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%), Home +2 handicap (87.5%) and Under 4.5 (86.9%). Dinamo are coming off a defeat, whereas AF Elbasani return from a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tirana win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.43
0.93
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.07
1.46
0.92
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.40
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.1%
2-2
5.3%
Dinamo Tirana goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.1%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.1%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.0%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tirana goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Dinamo Tirana is 0.41 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Dinamo Tirana is 0.21 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana is 0.10 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Tirana or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Dinamo Tirana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana or AF Elbasani
71.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Dinamo Tirana + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AF Elbasani
57.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Tirana, so a minus line means Dinamo Tirana give that many goals of a start and AF Elbasani receive them. At -1, Dinamo Tirana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Tirana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana -2
8.3%
Draw -2
13.1%
AF Elbasani +2
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana -1
21.4%
Draw -1
21.1%
AF Elbasani +1
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana +1
70.7%
Draw +1
16.8%
AF Elbasani -1
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana +2
87.5%
Draw +2
8.5%
AF Elbasani -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.12
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.71
0.77
0.54
0.07
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.5%
Under 0.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.38
0.73
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AF Elbasani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.83
0.87
0.53
1.00
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Dinamo Tirana's squad is €1m more valuable than AF Elbasani's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana