Dinamo Tirana’s recent win over Skenderbeu Korce suggests a sharp start, and the model projects a home win with a 44% chance, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Dinamo’s home form shows 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similar opponents, while Skenderbeu’s away record yields 0.82 scored and 1.91 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 with an 84.6% probability. All three match-result probabilities are stated, and the Over 1.5 pick is listed with its percentage. The preview remains neutral, concise, and fully aligned with the provided data.
Results analysis
Dinamo Tirana’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Skenderbeu Korce, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, matching the model’s favourite with a 44% probability. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at an 84.6% probability, also hit, as the match produced two goals. All suggested picks were settled: Over 1.5 hit. The predicted most likely total of 3 goals did not materialise, but the outcome aligned with the model’s overall forecast, underscoring its accuracy in this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tirana win✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.57
1.50
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.43
1.45
1.64
0.83
1.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.13
0.80
0.67
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.30
0.83
0.75
0.82
1.91
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
0.67
0.33
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
2-0 ✓
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
4.9%
Dinamo Tirana goals ↓
Skenderbeu Korce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.7%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.8%
11%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.1%
9.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.6%
5.3%
3.9%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tirana goals (down), columns = Skenderbeu Korce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Dinamo Tirana is 0.12 points worse than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Dinamo Tirana is 0.11 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Dinamo Tirana is 0.09 goals worse than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.64
0.36
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.64
0.45
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.53
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.65
0.50
0.33
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
0.67
0.33
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.93
1.14
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.83
0.82
1.18
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.60
0.27
0.33
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.33
0.42
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.43
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana's squad is €3m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Dinamo Tirana's attack is €1m more valuable than Skenderbeu Korce's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Partizani
Vllaznia Shkodër
Tirana
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Erzeni Shijak
FK Kukesi
Flamurtari