Dinamo Tirana’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.0 goal conceded per match, while they average 1.43 goals scored against similar opposition, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. Teuta Durrës, playing away, struggles to find the net, scoring only 0.75 goals on average and conceding 1.06, reinforcing the expectation of a defensive stalemate. The model favours a Dinamo win, with a 43% chance of victory, a 33% draw probability, and a 24% chance of a Teuta win. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a 2-goal match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, carrying a 15.3% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Under 4.5 (95.3%) and Home +2 handicap (92.2%). Both sides come off recent draws, with Dinamo having a 2-2 draw against Pafos and Teuta a 0-0 draw against Partizani, setting the stage for a cautious, defensive contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tirana win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës win
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.43
0.93
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.07
1.46
0.92
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.1%
Under 1.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.8%
Under 2.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.2%
Under 3.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.6%
No
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.7%
1-0
15.3%
1-1
14.3%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.4%
Dinamo Tirana goals ↓
Teuta Durrës goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
10.0%
4.4%
1.2%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.6%
7.5%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
3
3.7%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tirana goals (down), columns = Teuta Durrës goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Dinamo Tirana is 0.12 points better than Teuta Durrës in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Dinamo Tirana is 0.26 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana is 0.03 goals better than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Tirana or Draw
76.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
33%
24%
covers Dinamo Tirana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana or Teuta Durrës
66.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
33%
24%
covers Dinamo Tirana + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Teuta Durrës
56.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
33%
24%
covers Draw + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Tirana, so a minus line means Dinamo Tirana give that many goals of a start and Teuta Durrës receive them. At -1, Dinamo Tirana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Tirana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana -2
6.2%
Draw -2
12.8%
Teuta Durrës +2
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana -1
19.0%
Draw -1
24.0%
Teuta Durrës +1
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana +1
76.3%
Draw +1
15.9%
Teuta Durrës -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dinamo Tirana)
Dinamo Tirana +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.9%
Teuta Durrës -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.12
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.71
0.77
0.54
0.07
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.38
0.73
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Dinamo Tirana and Teuta Durrës have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and Teuta Durrës have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and Teuta Durrës have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Dinamo Tirana and Teuta Durrës have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Laci
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana