Dinamo Zagreb’s dominance at home is the clear driver behind the model’s 82% win probability, eclipsing the 13% draw and 5% away win odds. The team’s 3.33 goals per match and only 0.75 conceded at the venue against weaker opposition explain the 3.3 expected total goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 14% chance, a tidy result that aligns with Dinamo’s strong home form and Gorica’s 0.5 goals per game away. Dinamo’s home scoring and conceding figures stand at 3.33 and 0.75, while Gorica’s away figures are 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger teams. The suggested picks include an 99.7% chance of “Away under 3.5 goals”, 99.6% for “Away under 2.5 HT goals”, 98.9% for “Away under 2.5 2H goals”, 98.8% for “Home +2 handicap”, 98.2% for “Under 7.5”, 98.1% for “Away under 2.5 goals”, 95.9% for “Away under 1.5 HT goals”, and 95.6% for “Away under 1.5 2H goals”. The model’s pick remains a home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb win
83.1%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.16
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Dafabet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Draw
12.6%
Avg Implied 13.2% · @ 6.96
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
8.03
Dafabet
7.60
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
7.10
HNK Gorica win
4.3%
Avg Implied 7.1% · @ 12.91
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
15.00
William Hil
15.00
Marathonbet
15.00
Pinnacle
14.28
Betfair
14.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
0.97
2.94
1.00
2.50
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.56
1.75
1.75
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
3.24
0.71
3.33
0.75
3.11
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.19
1.00
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.21
1.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.31
1.25
1.00
0.88
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.08-0.7%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 6.43+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.3%
@ 1.34-4.9%
Under 2.5
35.7%
@ 3.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Under
BetVictor
3.13
Bet365
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Marathonbet
3.05
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 1.89-7.1%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 1.84+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Betfair
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
Both teams to score
Yes
39.7%
@ 1.92-8.4%
No
60.3%
@ 1.78+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
Superbet
1.92
No
1xBet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.0%@ 6.54+7.3%
3-0
13.0%@ 6.77+6.4%
1-0
9.6%@ 8.79+4.5%
4-0
9.0%@ 9.04+4.1%
2-1
7.6%@ 8.67+2.5%
3-1
7.0%@ 9.10+2.2%
1-1
6.0%@ 12.53+2.5%
5-0
5.0%@ 14.66+2.0%
Dinamo Zagreb goals ↓
HNK Gorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
9.6%
6.0%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
2
14%
7.6%
2.0%
0.4%
0.0%
3
13%
7.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
4
9.0%
4.9%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Zagreb goals (down), columns = HNK Gorica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
HNK Gorica
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.25 points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.47 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Dinamo Zagreb is 0.56 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Dinamo Zagreb is 11.6 percentage points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average possession (58% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb
For 6.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Gorica
For 4.3 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 15.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
10.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.2
22.5
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.9
9.6
10.2
4.3
5.3
3.1
23.8
23.7
24.0
vs Weaker (31)
9.5
9.1
9.8
3.1
2.4
3.7
22.8
21.7
23.9
% over line
50%
52%
48%
42%
38%
46%
58%
60%
57%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
58%
62%
54%
42%
40%
43%
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.8
4.2
4.6
3.8
25.3
25.6
25.0
vs Stronger (23)
9.9
10.6
8.9
4.3
4.5
4.0
24.5
25.0
23.8
vs Similar (27)
8.4
8.1
8.6
4.1
4.7
3.6
26.0
26.2
25.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
52%
38%
50%
56%
44%
78%
84%
71%
% under line
55%
48%
62%
50%
44%
56%
22%
16%
29%
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rudes
9.8
NK Osijek
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.5
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Varazdin
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.3
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
HNK Gorica
9.0
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
HNK Rijeka
4.5
Istra 1961
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.0
Rudes
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.5
NK Osijek
27.0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.5
Rudes
25.3
HNK Gorica
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
25.0
NK Varazdin
24.7
Istra 1961
23.4
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.1%
@ 1.79-7.9%
Under 9.5
55.9%
@ 1.93+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.8%
Under 3.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.9%
Under 21.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Zagreb or Draw
95.7%
Avg Implied 92.0% · @ 1.03
Edge
+3.7%
83%
13%
4%
covers Dinamo Zagreb + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
William Hil
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Dinamo Zagreb or HNK Gorica
87.4%
Avg Implied 87.7% · @ 1.08
Edge
-0.3%
83%
13%
4%
covers Dinamo Zagreb + HNK Gorica
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Draw or HNK Gorica
16.9%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.68
Edge
-3.3%
83%
13%
4%
covers Draw + HNK Gorica
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Betano
4.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5
Over
93.8%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Under
6.2%
@ 12.25-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
14.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5
Over
76.4%
@ 1.21-0.3%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.98+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.85
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5
Over
52.4%
@ 1.67-3.2%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.09+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 3.5
Over
30.2%
@ 2.68-4.4%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.42+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.72
BetVictor
2.63
Under
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5
Over
41.8%
@ 1.86-8.0%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.84+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5
Over
10.3%
@ 5.31-7.2%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.13+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5
Over
1.8%
@ 16.17-4.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
HNK Gorica over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
@ 50.00-99.8%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Zagreb, so a minus line means Dinamo Zagreb give that many goals of a start and HNK Gorica receive them. At -1, Dinamo Zagreb must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Zagreb win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dinamo Zagreb)
Dinamo Zagreb -2
41.4%
@ 2.16+0.7%
Draw -2
22.4%
@ 3.86-0.4%
HNK Gorica +2
36.2%
@ 2.41-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.08
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
2.60
Marathonbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Handicap -1 (Dinamo Zagreb)
Dinamo Zagreb -1
63.8%
@ 1.46+3.4%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.28-1.4%
HNK Gorica +1
16.9%
@ 4.64-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
3.80
Handicap +1 (Dinamo Zagreb)
Dinamo Zagreb +1
95.7%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Draw +1
3.3%
@ 17.00-2.3%
HNK Gorica -1
1.0%
@ 34.00-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
Handicap +2 (Dinamo Zagreb)
Dinamo Zagreb +2
99.0%
Draw +2
0.9%
HNK Gorica -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.06
0.56
1.21
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.67
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.42
1.33
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.57
0.62
0.62
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.75
0.88
0.38
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.19+1.3%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.24-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
@ 1.95-2.4%
Under 1.5
54.7%
@ 1.77+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.06
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 3.91-3.8%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.21+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Under
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 HT
Over
73.6%
@ 1.29+2.4%
Under
26.4%
@ 3.19-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Under
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 HT
Over
35.4%
@ 2.41-3.1%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.51+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.48
Marathonbet
2.39
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 HT
Over
12.3%
@ 5.39-4.9%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
5.60
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.8%
@ 3.33-2.0%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.28+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
3.9%
@ 13.08-3.3%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 65.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.47
1.88
0.44
1.29
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.10
0.29
2.33
0.33
1.78
0.22
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.44
0.50
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
@ 1.10+1.2%
Under 0.5
14.6%
@ 5.90-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.1%
@ 1.56-3.0%
Under 1.5
43.9%
@ 2.26+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.37
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.77-2.0%
Under 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.40+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.75
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.59
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.2%
@ 1.19+1.9%
Under
19.8%
@ 4.28-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 2H
Over
49.5%
@ 1.89+0.5%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.82-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 2H
Over
26.9%
@ 3.74+2.2%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.23-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.6%
@ 2.66-4.3%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.42+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.39
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 9.67-5.0%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
Superbet
9.90
1xBet
9.70
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
@ 45.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
Home or Draw
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
William Hil
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+3.7%
Home +1 handicap
95.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+5.0%
Under 6.5
94.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
+4.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
93.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.5%
Away under 1.5 goals
89.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+7.2%
Under 5.5
88.1%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
+6.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
+4.9%
Home or Away
87.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
-0.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+1.2%
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-0.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
83.1%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Dafabet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+3.4%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
+1.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+3.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
+1.3%
Under 5.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
1.35
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
+10.3%
Home over 1.5 goals
76.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-0.3%
Over 2.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+7.0%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+2.0%
Home over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.29
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-
-2.2%
Over 21.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dion Drena Beljo71%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Lukas Kačavenda29%
Moris Valinčić20%
Mateo Lisica14%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Luka Stojković0%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf0%
Fran Topić0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Scott McKenna50%
Miha Zajc40%
Bruno Goda33%
Luka Stojković25%
Mislav Oršić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Sergi Domínguez20%
Josip Mišić14%
Arber Hoxha14%
Lukas Kačavenda14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Robert Mudražija0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Dion Drena Beljo0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf40%
Robert Mudražija33%
Dion Drena Beljo29%
Luka Stojković25%
Stjepan Radeljić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Fran Topić20%
Josip Mišić14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Arber Hoxha0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dion Drena Beljo57%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Luka Stojković25%
Miha Zajc20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Moris Valinčić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
HNK Gorica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Bogojević40%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Perić20%
Domagoj Pavičić20%
Patrik Mijić20%
Ivan Cvijanović20%
Ante Kavelj20%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Vrzić25%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik Mijić60%
Bruno Bogojević40%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
Dinamo Zagreb's squad is €57m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€66m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
Dinamo Zagreb's attack is €29m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€33m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Gorica have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb's defence is €28m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€30m vs €3m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo