Dinamo Zagreb is the clear favourite to win against NK Slaven Belupo, with a 76% probability of a home win. This is largely due to their opponent's recent struggles, having lost four straight matches, and Dinamo's own strong form at home, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding just 1.07. Dinamo's home win percentage stands at 76%, with a draw percentage of 15% and an away win percentage of 9%.
The expected total number of goals is 3.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 10.1%. Dinamo's strong home form is reflected in their ability to score and concede goals, with NK Slaven Belupo struggling to score away from home, averaging just 1.4 goals.
The model's selection for this match is the home win, with an 88.5% probability of over 1.5 goals being scored and a 70.4% probability of over 2.5 goals. Other model selections include over 1.5 goals, over 21.5 fouls, and home win, with probabilities of 88.5%, 71.8%, and 75.7% respectively.
Dinamo Zagreb's 2-0 win extends their 3-game winning run, a streak that began with a 5-0 thrashing of Kauno žalgiris. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a pre-match probability of 76%. Dinamo Zagreb's home form has been impressive, with an average of 2.8 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. NK Slaven Belupo, on the other hand, struggled away from home, scoring just 1.4 goals per game and conceding 2.8. The model's selection, a home win, was correct. The model also correctly predicted over 1.5 goals, which hit at 88.5%. Over 2.5 goals, however, missed at 70.4%, as did over 21.5 fouls, which missed at 71.8%.
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.67 | 1.13 | 2.69 | 1.19 | 2.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 2.92 | 0.85 | 2.80 | 1.07 | 3.09 | 0.55 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.70 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 1.25 | 1.95 | 1.27 | 1.82 | 1.22 | 2.11 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| NK Slaven Belupo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 9.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Dinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 23.5 | 22.4 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 9.5 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 19.7 | 12.5 | 23.2 |
| vs Weaker (44) | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 24.9 |
| % over line | 47% | 48% | 46% | 44% | 42% | 46% | 57% | 56% | 58% |
| % under line | 53% | 52% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 54% | 43% | 44% | 42% |
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 24.8 | 24.2 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (32) | 8.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 25.2 | 24.5 | 26.1 |
| vs Similar (18) | 8.0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 24.1 | 23.7 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 24% | 27% | 22% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 69% | 65% | 74% |
| % under line | 76% | 73% | 78% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 31% | 35% | 26% |
Dinamo Zagreb| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.53 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 1.29 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 1.19 | 0.46 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 1.55 | 0.36 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
NK Slaven Belupo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88.5% | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.11 | +4.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.1% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +16.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.5% | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | +7.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 75.7% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -0.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | +3.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 2-5 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 09/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/12/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 4-1 |
Dinamo Zagreb| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 7-0 |
NK Slaven Belupo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 26.7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.7 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 44% |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 13.0 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 50% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.7 | 100% | 23.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.3 | 100% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 6 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.7 | 100% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 58% |
| 7 | HNK Rijeka | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 23.5 | 100% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 46% |
| 9 | NK Slaven Belupo | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 49% |
| 10 | Rudes | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | - |