Dinamo Zagreb is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 75% probability of securing a home win. The model's high rating is largely due to NK Varazdin's struggles on the road, where they tend to concede more goals against stronger opponents.
In their recent form, both Dinamo Zagreb and NK Varazdin have been on a 5-game winning run, with Dinamo Zagreb dominating their last opponent Rudes 4-0. This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.3 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favour of Dinamo Zagreb, with a probability of 11.8%.
At home, Dinamo Zagreb has been scoring an average of 3.06 goals and conceding just 0.88 goals. In contrast, NK Varazdin has been scoring 1 goal and conceding 2.4 goals when playing away against stronger opponents. The model's selection for this match includes Home or Draw (89.0%), Over 1.5 (84.9%), Home or Away (80.2%), Home win (74.9%), and Over 21.5 fouls (71.3%). Dinamo Zagreb has a 75% chance of winning, a 17% chance of drawing, and an 8% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Dinamo Zagreb’s unbeaten run extended as they beat NK Varazdin 3-1, confirming the model’s predicted home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 74 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.6 %, Under 6.5 at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.3 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.4 %. All picks settled as hit, showcasing the model’s accurate assessment of the match’s flow.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb win✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.53
Edge
+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Dafabet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.15
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
4.75
10Bet
4.65
Dafabet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.20
NK Varazdin win✗ Miss
8.9%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.36
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.60
888Sport
7.50
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
0.87
2.94
0.94
2.85
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.33
2.20
1.60
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
3.33
0.67
3.25
0.67
3.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.27
1.53
1.20
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.64
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.05
1.78
1.33
1.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.17+4.9%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 4.49-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
888Sport
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.57+4.3%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.25-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.30
888Sport
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.26
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 2.47+3.1%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.50-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
@ 1.68-5.0%
No
49.9%
@ 2.06+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
William Hil
1.67
No
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.16
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%@ 7.43+6.0%
3-0
9.8%@ 10.62+5.7%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.21+3.1%
1-0
8.9%@ 7.44+3.0%
1-1
8.2%@ 7.46+2.3%
3-1 ✓
7.6%@ 10.17+3.3%
4-0
6.1%@ 18.86+3.8%
4-1
4.7%@ 18.42+2.3%
Dinamo Zagreb goals ↓
NK Varazdin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.9%
8.2%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.2%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.8%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
0.1%
4
6.1%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Zagreb goals (down), columns = NK Varazdin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
Dinamo Zagreb is 0.89 points better than NK Varazdin in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.28 goals better than NK Varazdin in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Dinamo Zagreb is 0.50 goals better than NK Varazdin in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Dinamo Zagreb is 13.4 percentage points better than NK Varazdin in terms of average possession (58% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb
For 7.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
For 2.6 · Against 6.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Zagreb
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.0
3.7
3.9
3.6
23.4
22.8
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
9.6
10.6
4.2
5.3
2.8
23.6
23.7
23.4
vs Weaker (32)
9.6
9.5
9.7
3.5
3.0
4.0
23.2
22.3
24.2
% over line
50%
50%
50%
44%
44%
43%
58%
62%
55%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
56%
56%
57%
42%
38%
45%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.1
4.6
4.3
4.9
25.0
25.4
24.6
vs Stronger (17)
10.9
10.3
11.6
4.5
4.2
4.9
24.0
24.3
23.6
vs Similar (33)
8.7
7.9
9.4
4.6
4.4
4.9
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
33%
57%
68%
69%
67%
74%
75%
74%
% under line
55%
67%
43%
32%
31%
33%
26%
25%
26%
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
10.1
Dinamo Zagreb
10.0
Rudes
9.8
NK Varazdin
9.4
HNK Hajduk Split
9.4
Istra 1961
9.3
HNK Rijeka
9.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Rijeka
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
Istra 1961
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.2
Rudes
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.4
NK Osijek
26.8
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
26.1
Rudes
25.3
HNK Gorica
25.3
NK Varazdin
25.0
NK Slaven Belupo
24.7
Dinamo Zagreb
23.5
Istra 1961
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.2%
@ 1.82+4.4%
Under 9.5
44.8%
@ 1.88-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.8%
@ 2.02+17.5%
Under 3.5
37.2%
@ 1.67-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
71.4%
Under 21.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dinamo Zagreb or Draw✓ Hit
88.9%
Avg Implied 81.8% · @ 1.14
Edge
+7.2%
74%
17%
9%
covers Dinamo Zagreb + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Dinamo Zagreb or NK Varazdin✓ Hit
80.2%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
+1.8%
74%
17%
9%
covers Dinamo Zagreb + NK Varazdin
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Draw or NK Varazdin✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.33
Edge
-9.0%
74%
17%
9%
covers Draw + NK Varazdin
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
3.00
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.3%
@ 1.09+3.8%
Under
10.7%
@ 6.41-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Under
888Sport
8.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.40
BetVictor
6.00
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
65.4%
@ 1.53+4.2%
Under
34.6%
@ 2.40-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Under
10Bet
2.80
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.34
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
38.7%
@ 2.64+3.4%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.44-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.86
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.60
888Sport
1.53
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 4.87-0.4%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.15+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Betano
1.14
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.50-7.5%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.50+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.67
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.57
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 3.43-8.2%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.29+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
888Sport
4.33
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.23
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 9.06-5.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.05+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
NK Varazdin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 21.00-3.7%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dinamo Zagreb, so a minus line means Dinamo Zagreb give that many goals of a start and NK Varazdin receive them. At -1, Dinamo Zagreb must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dinamo Zagreb win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dinamo Zagreb)Actual: Draw
Dinamo Zagreb -2
25.3%
@ 4.37+4.7%
Draw -2
21.0%
@ 4.48+0.8%
NK Varazdin +2
53.7%
@ 1.53-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
3.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.40
Handicap -1 (Dinamo Zagreb)Actual: Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb -1
46.3%
@ 2.38+8.2%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 3.62-2.2%
NK Varazdin +1
30.9%
@ 2.45-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
10Bet
1.91
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Away
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Handicap +1 (Dinamo Zagreb)Actual: Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb +1
88.9%
@ 1.16+13.5%
Draw +1
7.6%
@ 5.90-7.2%
NK Varazdin -1
3.4%
@ 8.98-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.30
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.70
Marathonbet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Dinamo Zagreb)Actual: Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb +2
96.6%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Draw +2
2.7%
@ 15.00-3.6%
NK Varazdin -2
0.8%
@ 29.00-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.43
1.18
0.53
1.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.67
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.33
1.08
0.33
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.17
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.53
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.27+4.6%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 3.42-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.32-0.3%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.56+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 5.17-1.2%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.13+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
65.1%
@ 1.54+4.5%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.36-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.44
Under
10Bet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.42
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.20
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.7%
@ 3.56-0.3%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.25+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.80
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
10Bet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 9.04-3.1%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.60
Betano
8.75
10Bet
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
29.4%
@ 2.57-6.9%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.46+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.63
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.47
Under
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 9.20-4.5%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 36.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.43
1.76
0.41
1.38
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
2.00
0.33
2.17
0.33
1.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.09
0.50
0.83
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.78
0.44
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.8%
Under 0.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.7%
Under 1.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.9%
1.14
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.9%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
81.3%
1.15
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Betano
1.14
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.0%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Superbet
1.18
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.9%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.6%
1.43
Superbet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+17.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
80.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.5%
1.27
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.25
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home win
74.0%
1.53
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Dafabet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.46
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
+6.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Zagreb
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dion Drena Beljo71%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Lukas Kačavenda29%
Moris Valinčić20%
Mateo Lisica14%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Luka Stojković0%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf0%
Fran Topić0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Scott McKenna50%
Miha Zajc40%
Bruno Goda33%
Luka Stojković25%
Mislav Oršić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Sergi Domínguez20%
Josip Mišić14%
Arber Hoxha14%
Lukas Kačavenda14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Robert Mudražija0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Dion Drena Beljo0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf40%
Robert Mudražija33%
Dion Drena Beljo29%
Luka Stojković25%
Stjepan Radeljić20%
Moris Valinčić20%
Fran Topić20%
Josip Mišić14%
Smail Prevljak0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Miha Zajc0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Arber Hoxha0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dion Drena Beljo57%
Smail Prevljak33%
Arber Hoxha29%
Luka Stojković25%
Miha Zajc20%
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf20%
Fran Topić20%
Robert Mudražija0%
Mislav Oršić0%
Josip Mišić0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Goda0%
Ivan Nevistić0%
Scott McKenna0%
Niko Galešić0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Moris Valinčić0%
Paul Bismarck Tabinas0%
Lukas Kačavenda0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksa Latković40%
Mario Mladenovski40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Luka Mamić40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luka Škaričić25%
Mario Marina20%
Frane Maglica20%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Novak Tepšić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Ivan Mamut0%
Josip Silić0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Ivan Canjuga0%
Luka Mamić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matej Vuk67%
Ivan Mamut40%
Ivan Canjuga40%
Aleksa Latković20%
Gregor Sikošek20%
Iuri Tavares20%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Luka Mamić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Latković40%
Ivan Mamut20%
Ivan Canjuga20%
Luka Mamić20%
Matej Vuk0%
Mario Marina0%
Josip Silić0%
Frane Maglica0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Mario Mladenovski0%
Iuri Tavares0%
Tomislav Duvnjak0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Novak Tepšić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
Dinamo Zagreb's squad is €54m more valuable than NK Varazdin's (€66m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
Dinamo Zagreb's attack is €28m more valuable than NK Varazdin's (€33m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb's midfield is €1m more valuable than NK Varazdin's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb's defence is €26m more valuable than NK Varazdin's (€30m vs €5m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica