Dinamo Zagreb is the clear favourite to win at home against Rudes, with a predicted 88% chance of victory. The model's high rating is due to the Croatian powerhouse's impressive home form, where they've averaged 2.88 goals scored and just 0.94 conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, Rudes have struggled on the road, averaging 1 goal scored and conceded against stronger opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 3.8, with the most likely outcome being a 3-0 Dinamo Zagreb win, accounting for 13.2% of possible outcomes. The model suggests over 1.5 goals (89.4%), home win (88.2%), and over 2.5 goals (72.6%) as its selections. Dinamo Zagreb's home win percentage stands at 88%, with a 9% draw percentage and 3% away win percentage.
Results analysis
Dinamo Zagreb's win extends their 5-game winning run, with a 4-0 thrashing of Rudes. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly identified Dinamo Zagreb as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 90%. The model's selection, Home win, was the correct call. The model's selections largely came in, with Over 1.5 (90.3% probability) hitting, Home win (89.8%) hitting, Over 2.5 (74.3%) hitting, and Over 21.5 fouls (70.9%) hitting.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb winā Hit
89.8%
Avg Implied 84.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
Dafabet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Drawā Miss
7.9%
Avg Implied 11.1% · @ 8.31
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
9.67
Dafabet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
9.10
BetVictor
8.50
Rudes winā Miss
2.3%
Avg Implied 4.7% · @ 19.70
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Marathonbet
22.00
Dafabet
22.00
1xBet
22.00
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
0.93
2.71
1.06
2.85
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.40
1.83
1.67
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
3.30
0.70
3.18
0.73
3.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.17
1.60
1.13
1.47
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.57
0.96
1.64
0.79
1.50
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.3%
@ 1.09+4.7%
Under 1.5
9.7%
@ 6.44-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.3%
@ 1.34+5.4%
Under 2.5
25.7%
@ 2.98-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
@ 1.90+5.1%
Under 3.5
45.8%
@ 1.83-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
888Sport
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Under
SBO
1.97
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.9%
@ 2.29-2.4%
No
62.1%
@ 1.55+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
No
Unibet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
13.5%@ 5.77+5.8%
2-0
12.0%@ 6.01+4.6%
4-0 ā
11.4%@ 7.43+5.5%
5-0
7.7%@ 11.25+3.8%
1-0
6.7%@ 8.50+1.5%
3-1
6.6%@ 10.01+2.2%
2-1
5.9%@ 9.87+1.4%
4-1
5.6%@ 12.41+2.1%
Dinamo Zagreb goals ↓
Rudes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1
6.7%
3.8%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
2
12%
5.9%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
3
14%
6.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
11%
5.6%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Zagreb goals (down), columns = Rudes goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.28 points better than Rudes in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 1.11).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.51 goals better than Rudes in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.08).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Dinamo Zagreb is 0.87 goals better than Rudes in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.65).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
0.94
0.59
1.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
0.35
1.00
0.36
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.89
0.39
0.86
0.43
0.93
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.47
1.76
0.47
1.38
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
2.00
0.35
2.18
0.36
1.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.80
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.57
0.79
0.36
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.3%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+4.7%
ā Hit
Home win
89.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Dafabet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+5.6%
ā Hit
Over 2.5
74.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+5.4%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
Dinamo Zagreb's squad is €61m more valuable than Rudes's (€66m vs €5m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
Dinamo Zagreb's attack is €31m more valuable than Rudes's (€33m vs €3m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb's midfield is €2m more valuable than Rudes's (€2m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
Dinamo Zagreb's defence is €29m more valuable than Rudes's (€30m vs €1m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica