Domagnano are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 69% chance to a home win, a 21% chance to a draw and only 10% to a Faetano victory. The 2-0 scoreline is the single most likely result, with a 13.6% probability, and the expected total goals is 2.8, most often a 2-goal match. Domagnano’s home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and 2.17 conceded against similar opposition, while Faetano, playing away, averages only 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections reflect the strong home advantage: Away under 3.5 goals99.5%, Under 7.599.2%, Under 6.597.7%, Home +2 handicap97.1%, Away under 2.5 goals96.8%, Under 5.593.8%, Home or Draw89.9%, and Home +1 handicap89.9%. Domagnano’s recent loss to Tre Penne and Faetano’s recent defeats suggest both sides are looking to recover, but the venue tilt favours Domagnano.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Domagnano win
68.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Faetano win
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Domagnano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.37
1.93
1.50
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.64
1.00
1.40
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (13)
2.54
1.46
2.50
2.17
2.57
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.80
0.80
1.47
0.60
2.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.20
1.40
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.70
1.10
1.50
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.7%
1-0
12.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
9.3%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
6.3%
4-0
4.7%
Domagnano goals ↓
Faetano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.3%
6.3%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.7%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Domagnano goals (down), columns = Faetano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Domagnano and Faetano are level in average points per game (both 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Domagnano is 0.50 goals better than Faetano in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Domagnano is 1.00 goals worse than Faetano in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Domagnano or Draw
89.5%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
10%
covers Domagnano + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Domagnano or Faetano
78.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
10%
covers Domagnano + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Faetano
31.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
10%
covers Draw + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Domagnano over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Domagnano, so a minus line means Domagnano give that many goals of a start and Faetano receive them. At -1, Domagnano must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Domagnano win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Domagnano)
Domagnano -2
22.7%
Draw -2
21.2%
Faetano +2
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Domagnano)
Domagnano -1
44.0%
Draw -1
24.3%
Faetano +1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Domagnano)
Domagnano +1
89.5%
Draw +1
7.5%
Faetano -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Domagnano)
Domagnano +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.4%
Faetano -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Domagnano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.54
1.17
1.00
1.71
0.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.13
0.87
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Domagnano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.07
0.93
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.40
1.00
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.92
1.33
1.17
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.67
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
0.90
0.50
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Domagnano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Domagnano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Domagnano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Domagnano and Faetano have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Domagnano and Faetano have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Domagnano and Faetano have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Domagnano and Faetano have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Murata