Doncaster’s recent draw against Stevenage signals a cautious start, while Notts County’s unbeaten run, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Burton, gives the visitors a psychological edge. The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance, and places the draw and home win each at 29%. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Doncaster, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, whereas Notts County, on the road, averages 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%, edge 5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%, edge 8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8%, edge 7%) and Under 5.5 (95.7%, edge 4%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win at 41%, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended Doncaster’s run of two consecutive draws and kept Notts County unbeaten in five games. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Under 5.5 at 95.7% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Doncaster win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.40
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.52
Superbet
2.47
Betfair
2.45
William Hil
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Notts County win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.84
Edge
+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.40
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.13
1.40
1.27
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.11
1.00
2.40
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.19
1.20
0.90
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.81
0.94
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.25
1.33
1.00
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
0.83
2.67
0.83
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.29+0.6%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 3.36-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.31
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.92-2.9%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.85+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 3.23-4.2%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.31+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
@ 1.70-2.3%
No
47.9%
@ 2.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
No
Betfair
2.15
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%@ 5.98+6.5%
0-1
9.9%@ 8.68+4.8%
0-0
9.3%@ 9.28+4.5%
1-2
8.8%@ 9.54+4.1%
1-0
7.9%@ 7.73+2.1%
0-2
7.7%@ 13.57+4.4%
2-1
7.2%@ 8.60+2.0%
2-0
5.2%@ 11.38+1.3%
Doncaster goals ↓
Notts County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.9%
7.7%
3.6%
1.2%
1
7.9%
14%
8.8%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.2%
7.2%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.0%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Doncaster goals (down), columns = Notts County goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Doncaster is 0.13 points better than Notts County in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Doncaster is 0.03 goals worse than Notts County in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Doncaster is 0.04 goals better than Notts County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Doncaster
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
For 3.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 14.7 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.3
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.8
23.3
22.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
11.1
9.6
4.3
4.3
4.3
23.0
24.4
21.6
vs Similar (36)
9.7
8.9
10.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.8
22.9
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
33%
40%
50%
54%
46%
59%
58%
60%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
50%
46%
54%
41%
42%
40%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.8
4.4
4.2
4.6
24.9
25.0
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (28)
8.6
8.0
9.3
4.6
4.1
5.1
26.5
26.7
26.4
vs Weaker (20)
10.6
10.4
10.8
4.3
4.5
4.1
22.5
22.5
22.5
% over line
48%
44%
52%
66%
64%
68%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
34%
36%
32%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.1
Leicester
10.8
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.0
Mansfield
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Luton
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.9
Plymouth
24.6
Bradford
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Huddersfield
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.5
Peterboro
23.4
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Burton
22.5
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Leicester
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.1
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.85+1.0%
Under 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.86-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.0%
Under 21.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Doncaster or Draw✓ Hit
58.7%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.40
Edge
-8.0%
30%
29%
41%
covers Doncaster + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Doncaster or Notts County✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.4%
30%
29%
41%
covers Doncaster + Notts County
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Notts County✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 61.0% · @ 1.53
Edge
+9.4%
30%
29%
41%
covers Draw + Notts County
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Doncaster over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.9%
@ 1.26-6.2%
Under
32.1%
@ 3.58+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Superbet
3.55
Doncaster over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 2.29-9.4%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.58+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Under
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Doncaster over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.04-7.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.14+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Doncaster over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 11.56-5.3%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Notts County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.9%
@ 1.32+4.4%
Under
25.1%
@ 3.15-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Notts County over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.2%
@ 2.56+3.8%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.46-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Notts County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 6.07+0.9%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.10-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
5.95
Marathonbet
5.95
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Notts County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 14.75-1.3%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Doncaster, so a minus line means Doncaster give that many goals of a start and Notts County receive them. At -1, Doncaster must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Doncaster win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Doncaster)Actual: Notts County
Doncaster -2
3.8%
@ 9.69-5.3%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 6.23-5.8%
Notts County +2
87.7%
@ 1.16+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Doncaster)Actual: Notts County
Doncaster -1
12.3%
@ 4.59-7.1%
Draw -1
17.2%
@ 3.92-5.5%
Notts County +1
70.5%
@ 1.54+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
10Bet
3.85
Away
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Handicap +1 (Doncaster)Actual: Doncaster
Doncaster +1
58.7%
@ 1.38-5.9%
Draw +1
21.3%
@ 4.38+0.9%
Notts County -1
20.0%
@ 5.94+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.40
Handicap +2 (Doncaster)Actual: Doncaster
Doncaster +2
80.0%
@ 1.10-3.1%
Draw +2
12.6%
@ 8.57+1.9%
Notts County -2
7.4%
@ 14.67+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.20
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.00
1.20
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.29
0.70
0.20
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.94
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.89
0.56
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.37+0.8%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 2.88-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.9%
@ 2.76-3.7%
Under 1.5
70.1%
@ 1.40+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 6.89-3.3%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
1xBet
6.55
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 2.01-2.2%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.11-4.3%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 17.92-3.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.0%
@ 2.15-2.1%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.63+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.86-2.7%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 20.50-3.3%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.87
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
1.00
1.20
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.90
0.50
0.70
1.18
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.88
0.44
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.56
0.44
0.44
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.77-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.7%
@ 2.10-1.7%
Under 1.5
57.3%
@ 1.68+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.45-4.3%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.18+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.9%
@ 1.71-2.3%
Under
48.1%
@ 2.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 4.46-4.6%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.17+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 11.83-3.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.82-3.6%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.88+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 5.03-4.6%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.13+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 14.08-3.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.9%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.7%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.9%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.9%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.31
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
70.5%
1.53
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.53
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
70.5%
1.54
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
+3.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Hutchinson40%
J. Senior20%
A. May20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Senior40%
Robbie Gotts25%
George Broadbent25%
J. Thomas25%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bayley McCann33%
J. Senior20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. May20%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
J. Senior0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Notts County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Roberts50%
Oliver Cooper50%
Luka Smyth33%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
H. Mustapha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Lipsiuc50%
Luka Smyth33%
H. Mustapha33%
J. Gibbons25%
J. Bedeau25%
Oliver Cooper25%
J. Evans25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Tsaroulla75%
C. Roberts25%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Luka Smyth0%
H. Mustapha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Smyth67%
H. Mustapha33%
Conor Grant25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Oliver Cooper0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Doncaster and Notts County have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Doncaster's defence is €1m more valuable than Notts County's (€3m vs €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe