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Dorking vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-3
D
Dorking
Vs
37%
25%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: A Dale
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dorking win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.12
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.74
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.93
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

D
Dorking

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L05L10W31W23L51W11D14L31W33DH·BOR29/08H·WRE03/09A·BAR13/09H·NOT17/09A·SCU24/09H·DAG01/10H·YEO04/10A·ALT08/10H·WEA22/10A·WOK25/10
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.002.272.122.001.862.57
vs Stronger (2)1.503.001.503.00--
vs Similar (5)2.202.002.672.331.501.50
vs Weaker (8)2.002.252.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L31W02L51W01L12L00D33D21W20WH·MAI29/08H·BAR03/09A·NOT13/09H·HAL17/09A·ALT24/09H·WEA01/10H·EAS04/10A·SCU08/10H·YOR22/10A·YEO25/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.731.271.801.071.67
vs Stronger (16)1.001.941.121.750.882.12
vs Similar (14)1.361.501.431.861.291.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dorking) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.2%
@ 1.43+1.1%
Under 2.5
33.8%
@ 2.67-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.7%
0-1
4.7%
2-0
4.7%
Dorking goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
04.3%4.7%4.9%2.8%1.2%
14.6%11%8.3%4.7%2.0%
24.7%8.1%7.0%4.0%1.7%
32.7%4.6%3.9%2.3%1.0%
41.1%1.9%1.7%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dorking goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wrexham
2.41
Notts County
2.33
Chesterfield
1.83
Woking
1.78
Barnet
1.61
Boreham Wood
1.57
Bromley
1.54
Southend
1.50
Eastleigh
1.46
Dag and Red
1.37
Oldham
1.33
Halifax
1.33
Gateshead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Solihull
1.26
Dorking
1.24
Altrincham
1.22
Aldershot
1.15
York
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Torquay
1.04
Yeovil
0.87
Scunthorpe
0.74
Maidstone
0.54
Dorking is 0.09 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Notts County
2.54
Wrexham
2.52
Chesterfield
1.76
Barnet
1.63
Woking
1.54
Bromley
1.48
Altrincham
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Dorking
1.46
Aldershot
1.39
Oldham
1.37
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.33
Torquay
1.26
Southend
1.24
Wealdstone
1.24
Eastleigh
1.22
York
1.20
Boreham Wood
1.13
Scunthorpe
1.07
Halifax
1.07
Maidenhead
1.02
Maidstone
0.98
Yeovil
0.76
Dorking is 0.07 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Boreham Wood
0.87
Notts County
0.91
Wrexham
0.93
Southend
0.98
Halifax
1.04
Woking
1.04
Chesterfield
1.13
Bromley
1.15
Eastleigh
1.24
Yeovil
1.30
Gateshead
1.35
York
1.37
Oldham
1.39
Solihull
1.43
Maidenhead
1.43
Barnet
1.46
Dag and Red
1.57
Wealdstone
1.57
Aldershot
1.65
Torquay
1.74
Altrincham
1.78
Scunthorpe
1.89
Dorking
1.98
Maidstone
2.26
Dorking is 0.33 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.98 vs 1.65).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Notts County
58%
Wrexham
56%
Boreham Wood
55%
Yeovil
54%
Chesterfield
48%
Solihull
47%
Southend
46%
Maidenhead
46%
Halifax
45%
Dorking
44%
Altrincham
43%
Oldham
42%
Barnet
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

D
Dorking

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L10W10W20W20W01L01L10W11DH·BOR29/08H·WRE03/09A·BAR13/09H·NOT17/09A·SCU24/09H·DAG01/10H·YEO04/10A·ALT08/10H·WEA22/10A·WOK25/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.800.880.750.710.86
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (5)0.800.601.000.670.500.50
vs Weaker (8)0.880.751.000.330.801.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D00D21W00D10W00D13L10W00DH·MAI29/08H·BAR03/09A·NOT13/09H·HAL17/09A·ALT24/09H·WEA01/10H·EAS04/10A·SCU08/10H·YOR22/10A·YEO25/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.670.930.270.73
vs Stronger (16)0.440.940.501.000.380.88
vs Similar (14)0.500.710.860.860.140.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dorking) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dorking over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dorking over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dorking over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

D
Dorking

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L00D21W03L31W10W13L21W22DH·BOR29/08H·WRE03/09A·BAR13/09H·NOT17/09A·SCU24/09H·DAG01/10H·YEO04/10A·ALT08/10H·WEA22/10A·WOK25/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.251.251.141.71
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.50--
vs Similar (5)1.401.401.671.671.001.00
vs Weaker (8)1.121.501.000.671.202.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L20W02L30W01L02L00D20W11D20WH·MAI29/08H·BAR03/09A·NOT13/09H·HAL17/09A·ALT24/09H·WEA01/10H·EAS04/10A·SCU08/10H·YOR22/10A·YEO25/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.600.870.800.93
vs Stronger (16)0.561.000.620.750.501.25
vs Similar (14)0.860.790.571.001.140.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dorking) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dorking over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dorking over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dorking over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards93.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.586.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards84.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
DOR wins
0
Draws
0
ALD wins

Head-to-head

Dorking vs Aldershot · H/A from DOR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

D
Dorking

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/22AWoking Vs DOR3-3
22/10/22HDOR Vs Wealdstone3-1
08/10/22AAltrincham Vs DOR4-1
04/10/22HDOR Vs Yeovil1-1
01/10/22HDOR Vs Dag and Red5-1
24/09/22AScunthorpe Vs DOR3-2
17/09/22HDOR Vs Notts County3-1
13/09/22ABarnet Vs DOR0-1
03/09/22HDOR Vs Wrexham0-5
29/08/22HDOR Vs Boreham Wood1-4

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/22AYeovil Vs ALD0-2
22/10/22HALD Vs York2-1
08/10/22AScunthorpe Vs ALD3-3
04/10/22HALD Vs Eastleigh0-0
01/10/22HALD Vs Wealdstone1-2
24/09/22AAltrincham Vs ALD1-0
17/09/22HALD Vs Halifax5-1
13/09/22ANotts County Vs ALD2-0
03/09/22HALD Vs Barnet3-1
29/08/22HALD Vs Maidstone1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

D
Dorking
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.40
HomeLWWDW1.75
AwayLWLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%29%
AVG goals4.274.124.43
Over 1.5 %93%100%86%
Over 2.5 %87%88%86%
Over 3.5 %73%75%71%
Scored2.002.121.86
Conceded2.272.002.57
BTTS80%88%71%
Clean Sheet7%0%14%
Corners---
Cards4.133.624.71
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWW1.06
HomeWWLDW1.04
AwayLLLDW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%27%29%
AVG goals2.722.922.50
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %32%38%25%
Scored1.121.151.08
Conceded1.601.771.42
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet18%12%25%
Corners---
Cards3.563.773.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1WrexhamWrexham46111
74%
2.4
11643+73
3.5
87%
70%
48%
-
0%
2.6
30%
-
0%
77
1523392.50.9
56%
2Notts CountyNotts County46107
70%
2.3
11742+75
3.5
91%
70%
50%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
6
2222.50.9
58%
3ChesterfieldChesterfield4684
54%
1.8
8152+29
2.9
80%
59%
35%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
6
3121.81.1
48%
4WokingWoking4682
52%
1.8
7148+23
2.6
78%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
5BarnetBarnet4674
46%
1.6
7567+8
3.1
85%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.6
52%
-
0%
4
0131.61.5
40%
6Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4672
41%
1.6
5240+12
2.0
65%
22%
13%
-
0%
3.3
52%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
55%
7BromleyBromley4671
39%
1.5
6853+15
2.6
80%
48%
24%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
4
1121.51.2
-
8SouthendSouthend4669
43%
1.5
5745+12
2.2
70%
41%
15%
-
0%
4.0
63%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
46%
9EastleighEastleigh4667
41%
1.5
5657-1
2.5
63%
41%
26%
-
0%
3.8
50%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
10
DA
Dag and Red		4663
39%
1.4
6172-11
2.9
78%
50%
28%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
11HalifaxHalifax4661
35%
1.3
4948+1
2.1
61%
30%
20%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
45%
12OldhamOldham4661
35%
1.3
6364-1
2.8
80%
50%
28%
-
0%
3.3
48%
-
0%
3
1111.41.4
42%
13GatesheadGateshead4660
33%
1.3
6762+5
2.8
87%
54%
33%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
14WealdstoneWealdstone4660
35%
1.3
5772-15
2.8
74%
59%
35%
-
0%
4.0
67%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
15SolihullSolihull4658
33%
1.3
6266-4
2.8
83%
52%
26%
-
0%
3.3
37%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
47%
16
D
Dorking		4657
35%
1.2
6791-24
3.4
85%
70%
52%
-
0%
3.7
52%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
44%
17AltrinchamAltrincham4656
30%
1.2
6882-14
3.3
85%
63%
48%
-
0%
3.0
43%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
43%
18AldershotAldershot4653
30%
1.2
6476-12
3.0
87%
57%
28%
-
0%
3.2
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
19YorkYork4651
28%
1.1
5563-8
2.6
80%
50%
20%
-
0%
3.4
46%
-
0%
1
0011.21.4
-
20
M
Maidenhead		4650
28%
1.1
4766-19
2.5
70%
43%
22%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
46%
21
T
Torquay		4648
26%
1.0
5880-22
3.0
72%
50%
35%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
22YeovilYeovil4640
15%
0.9
3560-25
2.1
65%
30%
17%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
0
0000.81.3
54%
23ScunthorpeScunthorpe4634
17%
0.7
4987-38
3.0
87%
52%
37%
-
0%
3.2
43%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
24
M
Maidstone		4625
11%
0.5
45104-59
3.2
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.2
41%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
England: National League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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