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Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead Result & Analysis

Date: 09/04/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
DA
Dover Athletic
Vs
27%
28%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Referee: A Ajibola
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dover Athletic win✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 5.99
Edge
+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.14
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.49
Edge
-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L01L13L00D13L06L12L02L56L11DH·SOU29/01A·STO05/02H·TOR12/02A·ALD22/02H·GRI26/02A·BAR05/03A·HAL12/03H·YEO19/03A·WRE26/03H·KIN02/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.872.430.731.931.002.93
vs Stronger (13)0.923.150.712.431.174.00
vs Similar (17)0.821.880.751.500.892.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W03L00D02L01L01L21W12L13L00DA·KIN26/02A·DAG01/03H·ALT05/03H·WEA08/03A·WOK12/03A·CHE19/03H·SOU22/03H·BAR26/03A·SOL02/04A·WEA05/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.671.471.670.531.67
vs Stronger (3)1.332.003.002.000.502.00
vs Similar (11)1.272.091.671.830.802.40
vs Weaker (16)0.751.311.121.500.381.12
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.81-0.9%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 1.93+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.3%
0-1 ✓
9.2%
0-2
8.1%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
Dover Athletic goals ↓
Maidenhead goals →
01234
07.9%9.2%8.1%4.2%1.6%
16.5%13%9.3%4.8%1.9%
24.4%6.9%5.3%2.8%1.1%
31.7%2.6%2.1%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dover Athletic goals (down), columns = Maidenhead goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Dover Athletic is 0.86 points worse than Maidenhead in terms of average points per game (0.30 vs 1.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Dover Athletic is 0.25 goals worse than Maidenhead in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Dover Athletic is 0.77 goals worse than Maidenhead in terms of goals conceded per game (2.30 vs 1.52).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DA
Dover Athletic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D00D12L01L11D01L22D10WH·SOU29/01A·STO05/02H·TOR12/02A·ALD22/02H·GRI26/02A·BAR05/03A·HAL12/03H·YEO19/03A·WRE26/03H·KIN02/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.200.330.930.601.47
vs Stronger (13)0.461.540.431.290.501.83
vs Similar (17)0.470.940.250.620.671.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L00D00D00D00D00D00D02L00DA·KIN26/02A·DAG01/03H·ALT05/03H·WEA08/03A·WOK12/03A·CHE19/03H·SOU22/03H·BAR26/03A·SOL02/04A·WEA05/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.670.600.130.80
vs Stronger (3)0.670.672.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (11)0.450.910.670.500.201.40
vs Weaker (16)0.310.560.500.620.120.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DA
Dover Athletic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L02L00D01L05L01L01L34L01LH·SOU29/01A·STO05/02H·TOR12/02A·ALD22/02H·GRI26/02A·BAR05/03A·HAL12/03H·YEO19/03A·WRE26/03H·KIN02/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.230.401.000.401.47
vs Stronger (13)0.461.620.291.140.672.17
vs Similar (17)0.350.940.500.880.221.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D00D02L01L01L21W12L11D00DA·KIN26/02A·DAG01/03H·ALT05/03H·WEA08/03A·WOK12/03A·CHE19/03H·SOU22/03H·BAR26/03A·SOL02/04A·WEA05/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.801.070.400.87
vs Stronger (3)0.671.331.001.000.501.50
vs Similar (11)0.821.181.001.330.601.00
vs Weaker (16)0.440.750.620.880.250.62
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards78.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.576.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
DA wins
0
Draws
1
MAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead · H/A from DA
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/21AMaidenhead Vs DA2-0

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/22HDA Vs King’s Lynn1-1
26/03/22AWrexham Vs DA6-5
19/03/22HDA Vs Yeovil0-2
12/03/22AHalifax Vs DA2-1
05/03/22ABarnet Vs DA6-0
26/02/22HDA Vs Grimsby1-3
22/02/22AAldershot Vs DA0-0
12/02/22HDA Vs Torquay1-3
05/02/22AStockport Vs DA1-0
29/01/22HDA Vs Southend0-1

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/22AWealdstone Vs MAI0-0
02/04/22ASolihull Vs MAI3-1
26/03/22HMAI Vs Barnet1-2
22/03/22HMAI Vs Southend2-1
19/03/22AChesterfield Vs MAI1-0
12/03/22AWoking Vs MAI1-0
08/03/22HMAI Vs Wealdstone0-2
05/03/22HMAI Vs Altrincham0-0
01/03/22ADag and Red Vs MAI3-0
26/02/22AKing’s Lynn Vs MAI1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

DA
Dover Athletic
England: National League
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD0.38
HomeLLLLD0.62
AwayLDLLL0.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%15%0%
AVG goals3.182.623.79
Over 1.5 %76%62%92%
Over 2.5 %56%42%71%
Over 3.5 %42%35%50%
Scored0.820.770.88
Conceded2.361.852.92
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet10%15%4%
Corners---
Cards3.223.233.21
M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.10
HomeDDLWL1.28
AwayLLLLD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.843.122.56
Over 1.5 %76%84%68%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored1.201.321.08
Conceded1.641.801.48
BTTS48%56%40%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards3.243.203.28

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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