Dukla Praha, at home, have been conceding an average of 1.42 goals per game against similar opponents, while scoring 0.67 goals per game. Slavia Praha II, away, have been conceding an average of 2.14 goals per game against similar opponents, while scoring 1.0 goal per game. Given their recent form, both teams are coming off a win, with Dukla Praha having a 50% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing.
The model suggests a low-scoring match, with a 28% chance of exactly 2 goals being scored. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, but we'll focus on the total number of goals, which is expected to be 2.2. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.3% chance of success.
As the home favourite, Dukla Praha has a 50% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 50% probability. The Under 3.5 goals is the model's selection, with an 81.3% probability.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Slavia Praha II defeated Dukla Praha 1-3, extending their 2-game winning run and ending the home team's recent struggles. The win marks a significant upset, as Dukla Praha were the pre-match favourite with a 50% probability of winning. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Slavia Praha II secured the away win. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, which missed, with an 81.3% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dukla Praha win✗ Miss
50.4%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.66
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Dafabet
1.70
10Bet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.74
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
Dafabet
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Slavia Praha II win✓ Hit
20.0%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.29
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.60
Dafabet
4.50
1xBet
4.38
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dukla Praha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.37
0.80
1.33
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
1.36
0.73
1.36
1.00
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Praha II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.63
1.94
1.38
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.82
1.80
1.20
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
1.53
2.00
1.45
1.00
1.62
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.18-11.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
@ 4.20+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.5%
@ 1.63-18.3%
Under 2.5
61.5%
@ 2.15+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
BetVictor
1.64
Under
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.7%
@ 2.57-17.1%
Under 3.5
81.3%
@ 1.43+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
888Sport
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
@ 1.61-14.0%
No
56.7%
@ 2.15+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Betano
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.1%@ 7.71+8.3%
1-1
13.6%@ 6.91+7.2%
0-0
12.0%@ 12.42+8.4%
2-0
10.9%@ 8.35+5.6%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.25+2.7%
0-1
7.4%@ 13.61+4.2%
3-0
5.2%@ 12.65+1.7%
1-2
5.0%@ 12.77+1.5%
Dukla Praha goals ↓
Slavia Praha II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.4%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.0%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.2%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dukla Praha goals (down), columns = Slavia Praha II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Dukla Praha is 0.33 points worse than Slavia Praha II in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Dukla Praha is 0.83 goals worse than Slavia Praha II in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Dukla Praha is 0.17 goals better than Slavia Praha II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dukla Praha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.56
0.55
0.55
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Praha II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.81
0.81
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.60
0.20
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.89
0.91
1.09
0.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dukla Praha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dukla Praha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.33
0.73
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.80
0.18
0.82
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Praha II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.12
0.56
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.09
0.36
0.62
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dukla Praha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.3%
1.43
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
+17.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dukla Praha · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michal Kroupa22%
Dario Kreiker14%
Kevin-Prince Milla13%
Dantaye Gilbert12%
Rajmund Mikuš11%
Marcel Čermák9%
Jan Peterka8%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu8%
Zlatan Šehović8%
Namory Cissé8%
Lukas Penxa8%
Jakub Kadák7%
Michal Černák6%
Marios Pourzitidis4%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Marek Hanousek0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Matěj Žitný0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Samuel Isife0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eric Hunal45%
Boubou Diallo36%
Daniel Kozma33%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré27%
Tomáš Pekhart25%
Samuel Isife24%
Samson Tijani23%
Zlatan Šehović19%
Marek Hanousek18%
Martin Ambler18%
Michal Černák18%
Dominik Hašek16%
Namory Cissé15%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský14%
Jakub Kadák13%
Kevin-Prince Milla13%
Diego Velasquez12%
Rihards Matrevics11%
Rajmund Mikuš11%
Jaroslav Svozil9%
Jan Peterka8%
Bruno Unušić8%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu8%
Marios Pourzitidis8%
Štěpán Šebrle8%
Lukas Penxa8%
Tomáš Jedlička6%
Dantaye Gilbert6%
Marcel Čermák6%
Matěj Žitný5%
Adam Jagrik0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Michal Kroupa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcel Čermák15%
Samuel Isife12%
Michal Kroupa11%
Lukas Penxa8%
Jakub Kadák7%
Michal Černák6%
Matěj Žitný5%
Marios Pourzitidis4%
Zlatan Šehović4%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Marek Hanousek0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Jan Peterka0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Rajmund Mikuš0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Namory Cissé0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Kevin-Prince Milla0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Dantaye Gilbert0%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin-Prince Milla33%
Namory Cissé15%
Marcel Čermák15%
Marek Hanousek9%
Jakub Kadák7%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Marios Pourzitidis0%
Zlatan Šehović0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Jan Peterka0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Rajmund Mikuš0%
Michal Černák0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Matěj Žitný0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Dantaye Gilbert0%
Lukas Penxa0%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Samuel Isife0%
Michal Kroupa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Dukla Praha's squad is €4m less valuable than Slavia Praha II's (€7m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha II have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Dukla Praha and Slavia Praha II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Dukla Praha's defence is €5m less valuable than Slavia Praha II's (€2m vs €6m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ústí nad Labem
Karviná
Příbram
Táborsko
Kladno
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Baník Ostrava II
Vysočina Jihlava
Vlašim
Opava
Prostějov
Třinec
Hanácká
Viktoria Žižkov