Dumbarton is expected to emerge victorious, with their recent form a storyline worth noting. Coming off a defeat, Dumbarton will look to bounce back against Clyde, who are coming off a win. The model predicts a home win, with a 48% chance of success for Dumbarton. The draw is a 26% possibility, while Clyde's away win is also 26% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance of occurrence.
Dumbarton's home form is strong, scoring an average of 1.29 goals and conceding 1.57 against similar opponents. Clyde's away form is less impressive, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 1.5 against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a 48% probability. The suggested picks include an Over 1.5 selection, with a 79.7% chance of occurrence. Dumbarton has a 48% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Dumbarton's win extends their run of three consecutive losses, having previously been defeated 0-3 by Edinburgh City. The final score was a narrow 1-0 in their favour. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct with a pre-match probability of 48%. However, several of the model's other calls fell short. The selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, despite having a pre-match probability of 79.7%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 24% for this score, but the actual outcome fell short of this prediction. The model's call for Home win was the correct favourite, and it was the only selection to come to fruition.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dumbarton win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.97
1.33
1.53
0.80
2.40
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.15
1.29
1.57
1.00
2.83
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.82
1.38
1.50
0.67
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
2.13
0.93
1.27
1.87
vs Stronger (25)
1.72
1.48
2.08
1.00
1.38
1.92
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-0 ✓
8.3%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
0-1
5.4%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.4%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.3%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.6%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.5%
5.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Dumbarton is 1.40 points worse than Clyde in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Dumbarton is 1.80 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Dumbarton is 0.80 goals worse than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 5.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.4
9.6
2.8
3.3
2.3
20.8
21.4
20.2
vs Stronger (22)
11.1
13.0
9.3
2.3
2.6
1.9
21.4
21.4
21.4
vs Similar (28)
10.2
10.5
9.8
3.2
3.9
2.6
20.5
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
65%
47%
38%
52%
24%
44%
50%
37%
% under line
44%
35%
53%
62%
48%
76%
56%
50%
63%
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.3
9.4
2.9
2.7
3.2
21.2
22.3
20.2
vs Stronger (41)
10.2
11.2
9.3
2.8
2.6
3.0
20.5
22.4
18.7
vs Similar (9)
8.5
7.0
10.0
3.3
3.0
3.8
23.9
22.0
25.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
50%
37%
44%
31%
58%
43%
56%
32%
% under line
57%
50%
63%
56%
69%
42%
57%
44%
68%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.9%
Under 9.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 3.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.5%
Under 21.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.53
0.73
0.13
1.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.08
0.43
0.57
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.35
1.00
0.62
0.88
0.11
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.13
0.40
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (25)
0.84
0.68
1.17
0.42
0.54
0.92
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.08
0.86
1.00
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.82
0.75
0.62
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.00
0.53
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
0.88
0.80
0.92
0.58
0.85
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Dumbarton and Clyde have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Dumbarton and Clyde have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Dumbarton and Clyde have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling