Recent form shows Dumbarton struggling after two straight defeats, while East Kilbride come off a loss yet have a better away record. The model favours an East Kilbride victory with a 44 % chance, a draw at 25 % and a Dumbarton win at 31 %. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5 % probability. Dumbarton, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, whereas East Kilbride, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.92 scored and 1.42 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.3 %, Over 1.5 goals at 83.5 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.6 % and Over 8.5 corners at 75.3 %.
Results analysis
The win extends Dumbarton's recent run, but the final score of 0-1 was far below the model’s expected total of 3.2 goals. The pre-match favourite was the away side, East Kilbride, with a 44 % chance of victory, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections were mixed: “Over 2.5 cards” hit at 84.3 %, “Over 1.5” missed at 83.5 %, “Over 19.5 fouls” hit at 79.6 %, and “Over 8.5 corners” missed at 75.3 %. East Kilbride’s lone goal secured the away win, leaving the predicted total and most likely scores unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.75
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.01
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied 58.9% · @ 1.52
Edge
-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.63
1.50
1.44
0.86
1.86
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.55
1.67
1.33
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.68
1.40
1.50
1.00
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
1.93
1.36
2.00
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.71
2.00
2.00
2.25
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.91
1.30
1.91
1.18
1.92
1.42
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.44-2.6%
Under 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.55+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
0-1 ✓
6.3%
1-3
5.3%
0-0
5.3%
Dumbarton goals ↓
East Kilbride goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
6.3%
6.4%
3.7%
1.6%
1
5.0%
12%
9.1%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.5%
6.5%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.0%
3.6%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = East Kilbride goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Dumbarton is 0.81 points worse than East Kilbride in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Dumbarton is 0.83 goals worse than East Kilbride in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Dumbarton is 0.42 goals worse than East Kilbride in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dumbarton
For 5.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.3 · Total 18.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
For 5.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.6
9.2
3.1
3.4
2.8
20.6
20.8
20.5
vs Stronger (24)
10.8
13.2
8.6
2.7
2.8
2.6
20.8
19.8
21.8
vs Similar (26)
10.2
10.5
9.8
3.5
3.9
3.1
20.5
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
64%
41%
40%
50%
29%
41%
45%
36%
% under line
48%
36%
59%
60%
50%
71%
59%
55%
64%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
10.6
10.4
10.7
4.2
3.8
4.6
26.6
25.0
28.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
9.5
8.2
10.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
24.6
23.8
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
10.9
11.1
10.7
4.7
4.1
5.4
27.3
25.4
29.2
% over line
59%
53%
65%
61%
54%
68%
82%
82%
82%
% under line
41%
47%
35%
39%
46%
32%
18%
18%
18%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.1%
Under 9.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.4%
Under 21.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.62
0.69
0.21
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.79
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.67
1.29
0.57
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.86
1.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (23)
1.22
0.61
1.18
0.45
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.88
0.75
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.83
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.80
0.70
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.64
0.79
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.86
0.33
1.00
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (23)
0.70
0.70
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Edinburgh City
Stirling