Dumbarton are the favourites to win this match, with a recent-form storyline that sees them coming off a defeat at the hands of Edinburgh City. This loss has likely impacted their confidence, but they still hold a 47% chance of winning. The draw is a 28% possibility, while Edinburgh City have a 26% chance of taking the three points.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%. Dumbarton's home form sees them scoring an average of 1.62 goals and conceding 1.12, while Edinburgh City's away form results in an average of 1 goal scored and 2.33 conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the model also suggesting an Over 1.5 goals and Under 3.5 goals. The Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance of being correct, while the Under 3.5 goals has a 71.8% chance. Dumbarton have a 47% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The surprise of the day came in Scotland's League Two, where Edinburgh City pulled off a stunning 0-3 away win over Dumbarton, ending the home team's win streak. The model had picked Home win as its selection, a 47% favourite, but unfortunately, its call was wrong. The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 also failed to hit, despite being a 76% favourite, while Under 3.5 hit, as a 71.8% favourite. The most likely outcome of 2 goals had a mere 26% probability.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Dumbarton winâ Miss
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City winâ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.90
1.31
1.44
0.86
2.43
vs Stronger (12)
1.25
2.17
1.29
1.57
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.72
1.33
1.33
0.67
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.27
1.33
2.47
0.80
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
2.50
0.43
3.00
0.57
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.70
2.00
2.40
1.80
1.00
2.20
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
2.17
1.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.2%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.4%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.6%
13%
6.6%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.4%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Dumbarton is 1.00 points worse than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.60).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Dumbarton is 1.00 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 1.40).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Dumbarton is 0.40 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.4
9.6
2.7
3.2
2.2
20.7
21.4
19.8
vs Stronger (21)
11.3
13.0
9.3
2.1
2.6
1.5
21.1
21.4
20.7
vs Similar (29)
10.2
10.5
9.8
3.1
3.6
2.6
20.5
21.5
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
65%
50%
36%
50%
21%
42%
50%
33%
% under line
42%
35%
50%
64%
50%
79%
58%
50%
67%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
23.6
24.5
22.8
vs Stronger (23)
10.4
9.2
11.4
3.0
3.1
3.0
23.7
24.5
23.0
vs Similar (17)
8.9
8.5
9.2
4.6
4.2
5.0
24.1
25.0
23.2
vs Weaker (10)
9.1
10.0
8.2
4.3
4.2
4.4
22.6
23.5
21.8
% over line
51%
33%
68%
60%
56%
64%
65%
67%
63%
% under line
49%
67%
32%
40%
44%
36%
35%
33%
37%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.1%
Under 9.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.2%
Under 21.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.50
0.69
0.14
1.43
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.43
0.57
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.94
0.56
0.78
0.11
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.93
1.07
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.29
0.43
1.86
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.70
1.60
0.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.81
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.00
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
0.78
0.56
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.27
0.40
1.40
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
1.21
0.00
1.14
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.30
0.80
1.80
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Dumbarton and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Dumbarton and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Dumbarton and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling