The model predicts a Dumbarton victory, with a 59% chance of a home win, 24% for a draw and 16% for an Elgin win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.6% probability. Dumbarton, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.62 conceded, while Elgin, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 85.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.0%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.7% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.5%. Dumbarton’s recent form shows three straight defeats, whereas Elgin remains unbeaten in five games, having beaten Stirling 4-0. The model’s selection favours a Dumbarton win, a 2-goal total, and the 1-1 scoreline, with the listed picks reflecting the match’s likely intensity and scoring pattern.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Dumbarton, fell short in a 1-2 away win for Elgin, a shock that snapped Dumbarton’s three-game losing streak. The model had called a Home win with a 59% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the Away win. Among the model’s selections, Under 25.5 fouls (85.4%) missed, Over 2.5 cards (82.4%) hit, Over 1.5 (77.0%) hit, Under 23.5 fouls (73.9%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (70.7%) missed, and Under 3.5 (70.5%) hit. Dumbarton’s home form had been LLLWL, while Elgin remained unbeaten in their last five with a 4-0 win over Stirling.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dumbarton win✗ Miss
59.3%
Avg Implied 55.5% · @ 1.65
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.75
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
16.3%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.57
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.57
0.64
1.38
1.44
vs Stronger (17)
1.29
0.88
1.00
0.62
1.56
1.11
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.31
2.33
0.67
1.14
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.25
1.56
1.50
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.70
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.50
1.55
1.30
1.50
1.70
1.60
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.85+1.2%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.89-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
11.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
6.1%
1-2 ✓
4.7%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.6%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.9%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.2%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Dumbarton is 0.61 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Dumbarton is 0.14 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Dumbarton is 0.64 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dumbarton
For 4.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 3.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.1
4.3
4.0
4.7
20.3
20.2
20.3
vs Stronger (35)
10.3
10.8
9.9
4.2
3.8
4.6
20.8
21.0
20.6
vs Similar (15)
10.9
11.1
10.6
4.6
4.4
4.8
19.1
18.4
19.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
67%
54%
66%
58%
73%
39%
42%
36%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
34%
42%
27%
61%
58%
64%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.5
8.6
4.3
4.2
4.4
22.4
22.6
22.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.4
9.2
7.2
3.9
3.7
4.3
22.9
23.0
22.8
vs Weaker (34)
8.6
8.1
9.1
4.5
4.6
4.4
22.1
22.3
21.9
% over line
34%
27%
42%
60%
62%
58%
55%
54%
57%
% under line
66%
73%
58%
40%
38%
42%
45%
46%
43%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Forfar
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.4
Stranraer
9.3
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.9
Elgin
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Stirling
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Albion Rvs
4.0
East Fife
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Forfar
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.4
Albion Rvs
22.1
Stirling
22.1
Forfar
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Stranraer
21.2
Stenhousemuir
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
East Fife
20.9
Dumbarton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.4%
Under 3.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.6%
Under 21.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.59
0.62
0.62
0.44
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.46
1.33
0.33
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.62
0.75
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.17
0.83
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.60
0.90
0.70
0.90
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.64
0.14
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.29
0.38
0.00
1.11
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.85
1.00
0.33
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.62
0.81
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.10
1.00
0.83
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.60
0.95
0.40
0.80
0.80
1.10
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Forfar
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer