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Dumbarton vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 27/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Vs
62%
25%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dumbarton win✗ Miss
62.3%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.58
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.5%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.91
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
13.2%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.01
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W10W05L23L62W20W00D20W10W00DH·STR24/02H·PET02/03A·STR05/03A·EAS09/03A·SPA16/03H·BON23/03H·STE30/03A·FOR06/04H·CLY13/04A·STR20/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.470.801.471.53
vs Stronger (16)1.381.001.250.381.501.62
vs Similar (14)1.571.361.711.291.431.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D11D12L10W21W11D02L22D11D11DH·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03H·BON09/03A·STR16/03H·FOR23/03A·EAS30/03H·SPA06/04A·STE13/04H·PET20/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.671.331.000.732.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.932.071.291.140.573.00
vs Weaker (16)1.121.311.380.880.881.75
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.77-7.2%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.98+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.7%
2-0
13.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
4.8%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
09.2%4.8%2.1%0.5%0.1%
114%11%3.7%0.9%0.2%
213%9.3%3.3%0.8%0.1%
37.9%5.6%2.0%0.5%0.1%
43.5%2.5%0.9%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stenhousemuir
1.89
Peterhead
1.67
Spartans
1.61
Dumbarton
1.58
East Fife
1.22
Forfar
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.08
Clyde
1.06
Stranraer
1.00
Dumbarton is 0.47 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
1.61
Dumbarton
1.56
Spartans
1.47
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
East Fife
1.28
Clyde
1.28
Stranraer
1.06
Forfar
1.06
Elgin
0.97
Dumbarton is 0.58 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stenhousemuir
0.86
Peterhead
1.08
Spartans
1.19
Dumbarton
1.22
Forfar
1.25
East Fife
1.31
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.33
Stranraer
1.47
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.64
Dumbarton is 0.42 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.64).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

For 5.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

1506569446361693863724511158971511999A·STRH·CLYA·FORH·STEH·BONA·SPAA·EASA·STRH·PETH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

5022311123221212312523323351A·STRH·CLYA·FORH·STEH·BONA·SPAA·EASA·STRH·PETH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

26056109814118599111375610166711192219142020112613A·STRH·CLYA·FORH·STEH·BONA·SPAA·EASA·STRH·PETH·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 4.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1204842124374652546445412637111171089H·PETA·STEH·SPAA·EASH·FORA·STRH·BONA·CLYA·PETH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

9013541121224212125124922363373H·PETA·STEH·SPAA·EASH·FORA·STRH·BONA·CLYA·PETH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.1 · Total 25.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

32091516149109181219891517119122081024301927311732203218H·PETA·STEH·SPAA·EASH·FORA·STRH·BONA·CLYA·PETH·STE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.710.810.64.03.94.220.520.220.8
vs Stronger (24)10.39.810.83.94.43.421.420.821.9
vs Similar (26)11.011.610.34.23.45.019.719.719.6
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line60%62%58%60%65%54%40%35%46%
% under line40%38%42%40%35%46%60%65%54%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.38.68.03.73.63.823.824.123.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (22)8.17.98.23.94.73.224.125.223.2
vs Weaker (28)8.59.17.93.62.84.423.623.423.9
% over line34%38%31%50%38%62%64%62%65%
% under line66%62%69%50%62%38%36%38%35%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.7
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Forfar
9.9
Stranraer
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Spartans
9.3
Peterhead
8.9
Elgin
8.3

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.8
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.1
Dumbarton
4.0
East Fife
3.8
Elgin
3.7
Stranraer
3.6
Clyde
3.4
Forfar
3.4
Spartans
3.3

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.8
Elgin
23.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.7
Forfar
23.7
Stenhousemuir
21.9
East Fife
21.5
Spartans
21.0
Dumbarton
20.5
Stranraer
20.0
Clyde
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.5%
Under 3.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.4%
Under 21.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D04L01L32W10W00D00D00D00DH·STR24/02H·PET02/03A·STR05/03A·EAS09/03A·SPA16/03H·BON23/03H·STE30/03A·FOR06/04H·CLY13/04A·STR20/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.730.400.730.80
vs Stronger (16)0.560.380.380.120.750.62
vs Similar (14)0.930.861.140.710.711.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D10W00D00D11D01L01L01L10WH·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03H·BON09/03A·STR16/03H·FOR23/03A·EAS30/03H·SPA06/04A·STE13/04H·PET20/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.600.670.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.930.430.570.141.29
vs Weaker (16)0.500.750.750.750.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L22D30W10W00D20W10W00DH·STR24/02H·PET02/03A·STR05/03A·EAS09/03A·SPA16/03H·BON23/03H·STE30/03A·FOR06/04H·CLY13/04A·STR20/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.730.400.730.73
vs Stronger (16)0.810.620.880.250.751.00
vs Similar (14)0.640.500.570.570.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D02L10W21W00D01L21W10W01LH·STE17/02A·PET24/02A·CLY02/03H·BON09/03A·STR16/03H·FOR23/03A·EAS30/03H·SPA06/04A·STE13/04H·PET20/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.730.330.531.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.641.140.860.570.431.71
vs Weaker (16)0.620.560.620.120.621.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards78.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards76.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls75.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners73.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls71.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
DUM wins
0
Draws
3
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dumbarton vs Elgin · H/A from DUM
DateH/AGameScore
27/01/24AElgin Vs DUM0-1
18/11/23HDUM Vs Elgin1-0
16/09/23AElgin Vs DUM2-0
29/04/23AElgin Vs DUM1-0
25/02/23HDUM Vs Elgin1-2
12/11/22AElgin Vs DUM0-4
27/08/22HDUM Vs Elgin2-1

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24AStranraer Vs DUM0-0
13/04/24HDUM Vs Clyde1-0
06/04/24AForfar Vs DUM0-2
30/03/24HDUM Vs Stenhousemuir0-0
23/03/24HDUM Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-0
16/03/24ASpartans Vs DUM2-6
09/03/24AEast Fife Vs DUM3-2
05/03/24AStranraer Vs DUM5-0
02/03/24HDUM Vs Peterhead1-0
24/02/24HDUM Vs Stranraer2-1

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24HELG Vs Peterhead1-1
13/04/24AStenhousemuir Vs ELG1-1
06/04/24HELG Vs Spartans2-2
30/03/24AEast Fife Vs ELG2-0
23/03/24HELG Vs Forfar1-1
16/03/24AStranraer Vs ELG1-2
09/03/24HELG Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-0
02/03/24AClyde Vs ELG2-1
24/02/24APeterhead Vs ELG1-1
17/02/24HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.50
HomeWWWDW1.65
AwayLLWWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.602.312.92
Over 1.5 %66%54%79%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %30%23%38%
Scored1.381.311.46
Conceded1.221.001.46
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet36%42%29%
Corners10.7010.8110.58
Cards4.043.884.21
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDD1.00
HomeDWDDD1.58
AwayDLWLD0.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%42%12%
AVG goals2.502.082.88
Over 1.5 %78%67%88%
Over 2.5 %46%29%62%
Over 3.5 %18%12%23%
Scored0.841.080.62
Conceded1.661.002.27
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet16%29%4%
Corners8.308.588.04
Cards3.723.583.85

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3668
50%
1.9
5031+19
2.2
64%
36%
22%
9.8
50%
4.2
61%
23.0
56%
0
0001.40.9
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3660
44%
1.7
5839+19
2.7
81%
56%
25%
8.7
39%
5.1
89%
25.0
78%
0
0001.61.1
-
3SpartansSpartans3658
42%
1.6
5343+10
2.7
69%
56%
31%
9.4
47%
3.2
42%
20.9
44%
0
0001.51.2
-
4DumbartonDumbarton3657
44%
1.6
5644+12
2.8
67%
44%
36%
11.1
61%
3.9
61%
19.8
33%
0
0001.61.2
-
5East FifeEast Fife3644
31%
1.2
4647-1
2.6
81%
47%
25%
9.1
44%
3.5
56%
21.9
50%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ForfarForfar3642
25%
1.2
3845-7
2.3
72%
42%
22%
9.7
50%
3.5
50%
24.8
75%
0
0001.11.2
-
7ElginElgin3640
28%
1.1
3559-24
2.6
81%
50%
22%
8.8
39%
3.7
47%
25.0
69%
0
0001.01.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3639
25%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
78%
44%
31%
9.6
44%
4.0
50%
24.2
58%
0
0001.31.3
-
9ClydeClyde3638
25%
1.1
4658-12
2.9
83%
56%
28%
9.0
42%
3.4
50%
20.8
50%
0
0001.31.6
-
10StranraerStranraer3636
25%
1.0
3853-15
2.5
75%
47%
25%
10.3
67%
3.6
44%
20.0
36%
0
0001.11.5
-
Scotland: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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