The model favours an away win, with the Spartans the most likely victors. The expected total goals sit at three, yet the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12 % chance. Dumbarton, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Spartans, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 25 % for a home win, 26 % for a draw, and 49 % for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.5 %, Under 5.5 at 91.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 89.7 %, Away +2 handicap at 89.3 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 87.6 %, and Under 25.5 fouls at 84.8 %. Dumbarton have recently lost two straight games, while Spartans come off a draw, adding context to the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dumbarton win
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartans win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.33
1.20
0.67
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.08
1.50
1.17
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.56
1.22
1.22
0.33
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.75
1.67
1.67
2.40
1.80
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
1.32
1.50
1.17
1.40
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.9%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
6.6%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
5.6%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
7.9%
7.9%
4.7%
2.0%
1
5.1%
12%
9.6%
5.6%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.6%
5.8%
3.4%
1.5%
3
1.5%
2.7%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Spartans goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Dumbarton is 0.60 points worse than Spartans in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Dumbarton is 2.00 goals worse than Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (0.40 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Dumbarton is 0.20 goals better than Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dumbarton
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.5 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartans
For 6.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.5
9.6
2.4
3.1
1.8
20.8
21.6
19.8
vs Stronger (21)
11.3
13.0
9.3
2.1
2.6
1.5
21.1
21.4
20.7
vs Similar (29)
10.2
10.6
9.7
2.7
3.5
1.9
20.6
21.7
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
63%
47%
32%
48%
16%
44%
53%
35%
% under line
44%
37%
53%
68%
52%
84%
56%
47%
65%
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.7
9.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
19.9
21.7
18.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.0
7.5
8.5
2.2
2.0
2.5
22.5
26.5
18.5
vs Weaker (38)
9.6
9.1
10.1
2.8
3.0
2.7
19.1
20.2
17.9
% over line
44%
35%
53%
38%
38%
38%
29%
47%
12%
% under line
56%
65%
47%
62%
62%
62%
71%
53%
88%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.3%
Under 9.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
42.5%
Under 21.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dumbarton or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
26%
49%
covers Dumbarton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton or Spartans
74.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
26%
49%
covers Dumbarton + Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartans
74.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
26%
49%
covers Draw + Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dumbarton, so a minus line means Dumbarton give that many goals of a start and Spartans receive them. At -1, Dumbarton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dumbarton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dumbarton)
Dumbarton -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.3%
Spartans +2
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dumbarton)
Dumbarton -1
10.7%
Draw -1
14.6%
Spartans +1
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dumbarton)
Dumbarton +1
50.8%
Draw +1
21.6%
Spartans -1
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dumbarton)
Dumbarton +2
72.5%
Draw +2
15.3%
Spartans -2
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.20
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.72
0.44
0.67
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (22)
0.36
0.41
0.50
0.42
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.83
0.78
0.56
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.75
1.20
1.10
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling