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Dumbarton vs ST Mirren Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-4
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Vs
19%
28%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dumbarton win✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W20W11D21W22D11D21W02L01L05LH·SPA07/03H·STR10/03A·ELG14/03H·ANN21/03H·FOR28/03A·STR04/04H·STI11/04A·CLY18/04H·EAS25/04A·EDI02/05← League TwoLeague Cup →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.731.441.380.792.14
vs Stronger (11)1.091.551.431.290.502.00
vs Similar (19)1.161.841.441.440.902.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L22D02L01L03L20W11D11D10WH·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04A·CEL19/04H·LIV25/04A·DUN02/05H·KIL09/05A·ABE12/05H·DUN17/05A·PAR21/05H·PAR25/05← PremiershipLeague Cup →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.330.791.141.001.50
vs Stronger (10)1.101.101.500.500.831.50
vs Similar (20)0.801.450.501.401.101.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.9%
1-1
13.2%
0-2
11.4%
0-0
11.2%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
6.7%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
4.8%
Dumbarton goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
01234
011%14%11%5.7%2.2%
16.7%13%9.0%4.5%1.7%
23.2%4.8%3.6%1.8%0.7%
30.8%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Motherwell
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Dumbarton is 0.75 points worse than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
ST Johnstone
3.00
Falkirk
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
Ross County
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Morton
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Forfar
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Dumbarton
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Elgin
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Dumbarton is 2.25 goals worse than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Spartans
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Forfar
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Clyde
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Dumbarton is 0.88 goals worse than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0

🚩 Corners

1603213106186263763104784541698913131112H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

50222123212112221314352122434H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 8.2 · Total 18.4

⚠️ Fouls

270131410611111261291589575598927162218212314121417H·EASA·CLYH·STIA·STRH·FORH·ANNA·ELGH·STRH·SPAA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ST MirrenST Mirren

For 5.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

1501021614658785738547111127511151310131112H·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELA·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2

🟨 Cards

502311221312122212135223434324H·PARA·PARH·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELA·CELH·ABE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.0

⚠️ Fouls

290101011141111129131013101412815141571120252221232326232918H·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELA·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.211.29.23.13.52.720.921.420.5
vs Stronger (23)10.312.48.62.83.02.621.621.221.8
vs Similar (27)10.210.59.83.43.92.820.521.519.4
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line49%57%41%40%52%28%44%52%36%
% under line51%43%59%60%48%72%56%48%64%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.110.611.63.13.52.822.321.423.2
vs Stronger (19)11.010.311.73.44.32.422.122.222.0
vs Similar (30)11.110.711.53.13.13.022.420.624.2
vs Weaker (1)---0.00.0----
% over line72%75%70%36%56%16%57%50%65%
% under line28%25%30%64%44%84%43%50%35%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Morton
11.0
Stirling
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Celtic
10.7
Dumbarton
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Rangers
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Livingston
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Inverness CT
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Dunfermline
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Peterhead
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.4
Motherwell
8.4

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Aberdeen
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Morton
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
ST Johnstone
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
Dundee
3.6
East Fife
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Inverness CT
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.8
Aberdeen
25.7
Stenhousemuir
25.2
Livingston
25.0
Kilmarnock
24.7
Falkirk
24.5
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
East Fife
22.8
Elgin
22.7
Hibernian
22.6
ST Johnstone
22.6
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Montrose
22.3
Dundee
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
ST Mirren
22.0
Dundee Utd
21.8
Morton
21.8
Inverness CT
21.8
Celtic
21.7
Ross County
21.5
Dunfermline
21.3
Cove Rangers
20.9
Arbroath
20.8
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.5%
Under 9.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.1%
Under 21.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dumbarton or Draw✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
28%
53%
covers Dumbarton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton or ST Mirren✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
19%
28%
53%
covers Dumbarton + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ST Mirren✓ Hit
81.5%
Avg Implied -
19%
28%
53%
covers Draw + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dumbarton, so a minus line means Dumbarton give that many goals of a start and ST Mirren receive them. At -1, Dumbarton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dumbarton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dumbarton)Actual: ST Mirren
Dumbarton -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.6%
ST Mirren +2
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dumbarton)Actual: ST Mirren
Dumbarton -1
6.0%
Draw -1
12.5%
ST Mirren +1
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dumbarton)Actual: ST Mirren
Dumbarton +1
47.0%
Draw +1
24.9%
ST Mirren -1
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dumbarton)Actual: ST Mirren
Dumbarton +2
71.9%
Draw +2
16.7%
ST Mirren -2
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W01L00D02L10W10W00D01L04LH·SPA07/03H·STR10/03A·ELG14/03H·ANN21/03H·FOR28/03A·STR04/04H·STI11/04A·CLY18/04H·EAS25/04A·EDI02/05← League TwoLeague Cup →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.620.690.211.14
vs Stronger (11)0.360.820.570.570.001.25
vs Similar (19)0.470.950.670.780.301.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L02L00D01L01L10W01L10W00DH·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04A·CEL19/04H·LIV25/04A·DUN02/05H·KIL09/05A·ABE12/05H·DUN17/05A·PAR21/05H·PAR25/05← PremiershipLeague Cup →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.600.290.430.440.75
vs Stronger (10)0.300.700.500.500.170.83
vs Similar (20)0.400.550.200.400.600.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D10W21W20W01L11D02L00D01LH·SPA07/03H·STR10/03A·ELG14/03H·ANN21/03H·FOR28/03A·STR04/04H·STI11/04A·CLY18/04H·EAS25/04A·EDI02/05← League TwoLeague Cup →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.810.690.571.00
vs Stronger (11)0.730.730.860.710.500.75
vs Similar (19)0.680.890.780.670.601.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST MirrenST Mirren

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D20W02L00D02L10W10W01L10WH·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04A·CEL19/04H·LIV25/04A·DUN02/05H·KIL09/05A·ABE12/05H·DUN17/05A·PAR21/05H·PAR25/05← PremiershipLeague Cup →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.500.710.560.75
vs Stronger (10)0.800.401.000.000.670.67
vs Similar (20)0.400.900.301.000.500.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.7%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals99.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.599.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.597.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals95.3%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap94.0%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals93.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.591.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards82.6%--------
Over 19.5 fouls81.6%--------
Draw or Away81.5%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap81.5%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals81.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals80.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.579.9%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals77.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards71.9%--------
Home +2 handicap71.9%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away71.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.4%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Dumbarton's squad is €8m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€0m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dumbarton's attack is €1m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€0m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dumbarton's midfield is €3m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€0m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Dumbarton's defence is €3m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€0m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DUM wins
3
Draws
3
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dumbarton vs ST Mirren · H/A from DUM
DateH/AGameScore
27/03/18AST Mirren Vs DUM5-0
13/01/18HDUM Vs ST Mirren0-2
02/12/17AST Mirren Vs DUM0-1
14/10/17HDUM Vs ST Mirren0-2
08/04/17AST Mirren Vs DUM1-1
04/02/17HDUM Vs ST Mirren2-2
05/11/16AST Mirren Vs DUM0-1
17/09/16HDUM Vs ST Mirren1-1

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AEdinburgh City Vs DUM5-0
25/04/26HDUM Vs East Kilbride0-1
18/04/26AClyde Vs DUM2-0
11/04/26HDUM Vs Stirling2-1
04/04/26AStranraer Vs DUM1-1
28/03/26HDUM Vs Forfar2-2
21/03/26HDUM Vs Annan Athletic2-1
14/03/26AElgin Vs DUM1-1
10/03/26HDUM Vs Stranraer2-0
07/03/26HDUM Vs Spartans3-0

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/26HSM Vs Partick1-0
21/05/26APartick Vs SM1-1
17/05/26HSM Vs Dundee Utd1-1
12/05/26AAberdeen Vs SM0-2
09/05/26HSM Vs Kilmarnock0-3
02/05/26ADundee Vs SM1-0
25/04/26HSM Vs Livingston0-2
19/04/26ACeltic Vs SM2-2
11/04/26ACeltic Vs SM1-0
04/04/26HSM Vs Aberdeen2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.22
HomeWWDWL1.40
AwayDDDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals3.042.763.32
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %60%68%52%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.361.321.40
Conceded1.681.441.92
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners10.2111.249.23
Cards3.604.143.09
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDW1.16
HomeWLLDW1.48
AwayLDLWD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals2.542.242.84
Over 1.5 %74%60%88%
Over 2.5 %38%32%44%
Over 3.5 %22%16%28%
Scored1.161.121.20
Conceded1.381.121.64
BTTS50%32%68%
Clean Sheet20%36%4%
Corners11.0710.5511.60
Cards3.413.783.04

🏆 17. League Table

Dumbarton plays in Scotland - League Two
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElginElgin511
60%
2.2
175+12
4.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.41.0
-
2ClydeClyde510
60%
2.0
116+5
3.4
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3ForfarForfar58
40%
1.6
65+1
2.2
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
4Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City58
40%
1.6
78-1
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
5StranraerStranraer57
40%
1.4
66+0
2.4
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
6SpartansSpartans56
20%
1.2
1211+1
4.6
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.42.2
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic56
40%
1.2
67-1
2.6
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts56
40%
1.2
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.42.0
-
9StirlingStirling54
20%
0.8
612-6
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
10DumbartonDumbarton53
20%
0.6
210-8
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.42.0
-
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
ST Mirren plays in Scotland - Premiership
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic39
100%
3.0
82+6
3.3
67%
67%
33%
11.3
67%
2.7
33%
19.7
33%
116
5620412.70.7
66%
2ST MirrenST Mirren37
67%
2.3
63+3
3.0
67%
33%
33%
11.7
67%
3.7
67%
27.0
67%
8
1332.01.0
46%
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
100%
33%
10.3
67%
4.0
50%
24.7
100%
22
12462.31.0
53%
4DundeeDundee46
50%
1.5
53+2
2.0
75%
25%
0%
10.2
50%
3.8
50%
20.2
50%
5
1221.20.8
44%
5HibernianHibernian36
67%
2.0
54+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.7
67%
2.7
33%
24.3
100%
20
7851.71.3
47%
6MotherwellMotherwell35
33%
1.7
54+1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
9.7
67%
4.0
100%
28.7
100%
16
10151.71.3
58%
7RangersRangers34
33%
1.3
33+0
2.0
67%
33%
0%
12.3
100%
5.0
67%
30.0
100%
136
3844541.01.0
58%
8Dundee UtdDundee Utd44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
10.8
50%
5.0
75%
24.2
100%
11
4341.21.8
42%
9ST JohnstoneST Johnstone33
33%
1.0
56-1
3.7
67%
67%
33%
9.3
33%
3.5
50%
21.0
33%
5
2121.72.0
-
10AberdeenAberdeen33
33%
1.0
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
10.3
67%
6.0
100%
28.0
67%
15
4470.71.3
48%
11FalkirkFalkirk31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
33%
0%
9.0
33%
4.3
100%
30.0
67%
6
2130.31.3
51%
12KilmarnockKilmarnock30
0%
0.0
413-9
5.7
100%
100%
100%
9.7
33%
3.7
67%
21.3
67%
7
3231.34.3
42%
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

← all matches