The contest between Dumbrăvița and CSM Reșița is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no outcome is a clear certainty. The probabilities are 41 % for a Dumbrăvița victory, 30 % for a draw and 29 % for a CSM Reșița win. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3 % chance. Dumbrăvița, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.09 goals scored and 0.64 conceded. CSM Reșița, on the road, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 5.5 (96.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7 %), Under 4.5 (90.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8 %) and Home +2 handicap (88.3 %). The match’s balance is evident, with both sides capable of turning the tide.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dumbrăviţa win
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa win
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dumbrăviţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.94
0.94
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.90
0.91
0.73
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.19
1.29
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.46
1.43
1.36
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.17
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.8%
Dumbrăviţa goals ↓
CSM Reşiţa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.5%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.6%
8.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbrăviţa goals (down), columns = CSM Reşiţa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
Dumbrăviţa is 1.80 points worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
Dumbrăviţa is 1.00 goals worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
Dumbrăviţa and CSM Reşiţa are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dumbrăviţa or Draw
69.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Dumbrăviţa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa or CSM Reşiţa
69.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Dumbrăviţa + CSM Reşiţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
61.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + CSM Reşiţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dumbrăviţa, so a minus line means Dumbrăviţa give that many goals of a start and CSM Reşiţa receive them. At -1, Dumbrăviţa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dumbrăviţa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dumbrăviţa)
Dumbrăviţa -2
5.8%
Draw -2
11.4%
CSM Reşiţa +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dumbrăviţa)
Dumbrăviţa -1
17.2%
Draw -1
21.1%
CSM Reşiţa +1
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dumbrăviţa)
Dumbrăviţa +1
69.4%
Draw +1
18.2%
CSM Reşiţa -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dumbrăviţa)
Dumbrăviţa +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.7%
CSM Reşiţa -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dumbrăviţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.62
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.71
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dumbrăviţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.27
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSM Reşiţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.56
0.56
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.43
0.64
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
Dumbrăviţa's squad is €1m less valuable than CSM Reşiţa's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
Dumbrăviţa and CSM Reşiţa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
Dumbrăviţa and CSM Reşiţa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
Dumbrăviţa and CSM Reşiţa have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →