Dumbrăvița is expected to take the lead in this Romania: Liga II match against CSM Satu Mare, with a 45% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw, and 26% for an away win. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.4 goals. A 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome, with a 14% probability.
Dumbrăvița has been performing reasonably well at home, scoring an average of 0.88 goals and conceding 0.75 goals against teams of similar strength. CSM Satu Mare, on the other hand, has struggled to score away from home, averaging 0 goals, while conceding 1 goal against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.4% probability. This pick is also expected to have an edge, with a 7% advantage. The model also suggests the Home win, with a 45% probability, and the Draw, with a 30% probability. The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 26%.
In a shocking turn of events, Dumbrăvița's home draw extends their run of inconsistent form, as they failed to build on their previous win. The match ended 1-1, resulting in a draw for both teams. The pre-match favourite, Dumbrăvița, did not come through, as the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect.
The model's selection, Home win, had a 45% chance of success, but ultimately, Dumbrăvița's recent form, which saw them coming off a defeat, caught up with them. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit, with an 78.4% probability of occurrence. CSM Satu Mare's poor away form, which saw them score an average of 0 goals, did little to suggest a convincing win, but they still managed to hold Dumbrăvița to a draw.
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.47 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.86 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.10 | 2.20 | 1.17 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 2.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.90 | 1.43 | 2.14 | 1.62 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 1.37 | 2.05 | 0.67 | 2.83 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.82 | 1.64 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| CSM Satu Mare goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.58 | 0.89 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Dumbrăviţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.79 | 1.16 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.45 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.4% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.29 | +7.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-4 |
Dumbrăviţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
CSM Satu Mare| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |