This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.63
1.25
1.19
1.07
2.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.55
0.40
0.40
0.83
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.68
1.64
1.55
1.25
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-0 â
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Dundalk goals ↓
Drogheda United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.8%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.2%
6.0%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.4%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Drogheda United goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Dundalk is 0.28 points worse than Drogheda United in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Dundalk is 0.55 goals worse than Drogheda United in terms of goals scored per game (0.64 vs 1.19).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Dundalk is 0.21 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.59).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Dundalk is 8.9 percentage points better than Drogheda United in terms of average possession (48% vs 39%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 4.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 29.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
For 4.1 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.5 · Total 22.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
8.5
6.8
2.6
2.4
2.8
27.4
25.5
29.9
vs Stronger (5)
8.7
11.0
7.5
2.6
2.0
3.0
24.7
21.0
26.5
vs Similar (44)
7.5
8.2
6.7
2.7
2.4
2.9
27.9
25.9
30.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
32%
46%
17%
44%
40%
48%
87%
77%
100%
% under line
68%
54%
83%
56%
60%
52%
13%
23%
0%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.1
1.7
1.9
1.5
21.9
21.6
22.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.6
11.3
8.2
1.6
1.2
2.1
20.1
21.7
19.0
vs Similar (33)
10.1
10.6
9.6
1.8
2.4
1.3
22.7
21.6
24.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
73%
36%
22%
25%
19%
59%
55%
64%
% under line
45%
27%
64%
78%
75%
81%
41%
45%
36%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.9
Galway United
10.4
Shamrock Rovers
10.4
Drogheda United
10.0
Derry City
9.9
Waterford
9.6
St Patrick's Athl.
9.4
Sligo Rovers
8.9
Shelbourne
8.9
Dundalk
7.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.2
Shelbourne
6.0
Sligo Rovers
5.4
Bohemians
5.4
Dundalk
5.2
Derry City
5.2
Waterford
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Galway United
4.4
Drogheda United
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
27.4
Sligo Rovers
27.1
Shelbourne
26.3
St Patrick's Athl.
25.7
Galway United
25.4
Bohemians
25.0
Derry City
24.4
Waterford
24.1
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.8%
Under 9.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.9%
Under 21.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.85
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.44
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.64
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.53
0.82
0.45
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.47
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.58
0.93
0.50
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.62
0.75
0.57
1.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.20
0.00
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.16
0.82
1.09
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamie Gullan16%
Robbie Benson13%
Ryan O'Kane9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Scott High7%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Sam Durrant0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Keogh45%
Aodh Dervin42%
Paul Doyle32%
Hayden Muller31%
Cameron Elliott29%
Koen Oostenbrink29%
Zak Bradshaw28%
Robbie Benson27%
Mayowa Animasahun26%
Bobby Faulkner25%
Sam Durrant22%
Louie Annesley20%
Eoin Kenny20%
Archie Davies18%
Zac Johnson17%
Jamie Gullan16%
John Mountney14%
Norman Garbett14%
Andy Boyle12%
Scott McGill11%
Hayden Cann11%
Dan Pike11%
Jad Hakiki8%
Scott High7%
Daryl Horgan6%
Robert Mahon5%
Ross Munro5%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Dara Keane0%
Jamie Walker0%
George Shelvey0%
Felix Goddard0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pike11%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Sam Durrant6%
Paul Doyle5%
Robert Mahon5%
Archie Davies5%
Eoin Kenny4%
John Mountney4%
Robbie Benson3%
Jamie Gullan3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan13%
Cameron Elliott12%
Sean Keogh9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Sam Durrant6%
Robbie Benson3%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Norman Garbett0%
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor38%
Frantz Pierrot26%
Evan Weir21%
Steve Zishim Bawa18%
Adam Foley12%
Shane Farrell9%
Aaron McNally9%
Andrew Quinn8%
Elicha Ahui8%
Hayden Cann6%
Oisin Gallagher6%
Jack Keaney4%
Conor Kane4%
Warren Davis4%
Darragh Markey3%
Gary Deegan0%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Heeney0%
Luke Dennison0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Andrew Wogan0%
James Bolger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Farrell45%
Douglas James-Taylor31%
Elicha Ahui31%
Oisin Gallagher28%
Luke Dennison27%
Evan Weir26%
Matthew O'Brien25%
Darragh Markey24%
Ryan Brennan24%
Luke Heeney24%
Jack Keaney24%
Gary Deegan24%
David Webster21%
James Bolger18%
Frantz Pierrot16%
Adam Foley16%
Hayden Cann12%
Aaron McNally9%
Andrew Quinn8%
Warren Davis7%
Steve Zishim Bawa6%
Andrew Wogan5%
Jethren Barr0%
Conor Kane0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Markey12%
Evan Weir11%
Shane Farrell9%
Douglas James-Taylor8%
Conor Kane8%
Adam Foley6%
Oisin Gallagher6%
Andrew Wogan5%
Gary Deegan5%
Andrew Quinn4%
Luke Heeney3%
Frantz Pierrot3%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Jack Keaney0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Dennison0%
Aaron McNally0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Hayden Cann0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Warren Davis0%
Steve Zishim Bawa0%
James Bolger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Frantz Pierrot39%
Douglas James-Taylor23%
Steve Zishim Bawa18%
Darragh Markey9%
Shane Farrell9%
James Bolger9%
Warren Davis7%
Adam Foley6%
Evan Weir5%
Conor Kane4%
Gary Deegan0%
Jethren Barr0%
David Webster0%
Jack Keaney0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Luke Heeney0%
Luke Dennison0%
Aaron McNally0%
Matthew O'Brien0%
Hayden Cann0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
Killian Cailloce0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Andrew Wogan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar squad value (both €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Bray Wanderers