Dundalk are tipped to win, with a 54% chance of taking the match home, 24% for a draw and 22% for Drogheda United. The model expects a total of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.3% chance. Dundalk, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.36 conceded, while Drogheda United, on the road, average 1.22 scored and 1.56 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 85.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.3% (hit), Under 25.5 fouls at 78.1% (hit) and Over 3.5 cards at 70.8%. These selections are independent of the match result probabilities. The preview highlights Dundalk’s advantage, the expected goal output, and the key statistical insights that shape the likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Drogheda United snatched a 1-2 away win, extending their run of five matches with a single victory after two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 54% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards at 85.9% missed; Over 1.5 at 82.3% hit; Under 25.5 fouls at 78.1% hit; Over 3.5 cards at 70.8% missed. The predicted 2-goal total fell short of the actual 3-goal tally, and the most likely 1-1 scoreline did not materialise. The final result was an away triumph, leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the pitch.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundalk win✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United win✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
2.07
1.14
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.58
2.00
1.36
1.38
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.75
3.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.67
1.19
1.38
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.00
0.75
1.00
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.60
1.36
1.64
1.22
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
6.3%
1-2 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Dundalk goals ↓
Drogheda United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.3%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
7.8%
11%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.3%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.6%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Drogheda United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Bohemians
1.68
Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.31
Galway United
1.22
Derry City
1.18
Waterford
1.04
Drogheda United
1.00
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Dundalk is 0.32 points better than Drogheda United in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.68
St Patrick's Athl.
1.61
Shamrock Rovers
1.59
Dundalk
1.54
Shelbourne
1.38
Derry City
1.36
Waterford
1.32
Galway United
1.30
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Dundalk is 0.43 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Shamrock Rovers
0.89
Bohemians
1.21
Derry City
1.32
Shelbourne
1.46
Galway United
1.52
Dundalk
1.54
Sligo Rovers
1.61
Drogheda United
1.61
Waterford
1.71
Dundalk is 0.07 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
58%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
39%
Waterford
39%
Dundalk is 12.1 percentage points better than Drogheda United in terms of average possession (52% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 5.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
For 4.2 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.9
11.6
2.3
2.7
1.9
23.4
22.0
24.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
9.0
8.0
6.5
5.0
8.0
25.5
19.0
32.0
vs Similar (30)
11.0
10.0
12.0
3.4
4.2
2.6
23.2
22.3
24.1
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
68%
64%
73%
30%
29%
31%
73%
64%
82%
% under line
32%
36%
27%
70%
71%
69%
27%
36%
18%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.5
4.7
4.3
21.4
21.0
21.9
vs Stronger (17)
9.2
9.2
9.2
4.4
5.5
3.4
21.2
21.2
21.1
vs Similar (30)
10.5
10.3
10.7
4.6
4.2
4.9
21.6
20.8
22.4
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
10.0
11.0
4.3
4.5
4.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
% over line
45%
44%
46%
64%
73%
54%
57%
52%
62%
% under line
55%
56%
54%
36%
27%
46%
43%
48%
38%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
11.1
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.2
Drogheda United
10.2
St Patrick's Athl.
10.0
Bohemians
9.9
Shelbourne
9.5
Derry City
9.3
Shamrock Rovers
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Shelbourne
4.9
Bohemians
4.8
Waterford
4.8
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
23.3
Bohemians
23.0
Derry City
23.0
Galway United
22.8
St Patrick's Athl.
22.7
Waterford
22.7
Shamrock Rovers
22.1
Drogheda United
21.5
Shelbourne
21.5
Sligo Rovers
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.1%
Under 9.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.8%
Under 3.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.4%
Under 21.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.86
0.36
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.58
0.91
0.45
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.81
0.69
0.14
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.25
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.65
1.00
0.73
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.21
0.79
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.00
1.09
0.91
0.62
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.38
0.69
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
0.25
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.95
0.36
0.91
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Dundalk and Drogheda United have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers