PythiaFootballBETA
Dundalk is expected to emerge victorious in this encounter, with a slight edge in recent form. The home side has struggled to find consistency, coming off a defeat in their last outing against Shamrock Rovers, where they lost 2-3. Meanwhile, Sligo Rovers are also coming off a defeat, having lost 0-2 to Derry City.
The model predicts a Dundalk win with 53% probability, while a draw is seen as 25% likely, and an away win for Sligo Rovers is 22% probable. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 24% of the time.
Dundalk has averaged 1 goal scored and 1 conceded at home against weaker opponents, whereas Sligo Rovers have averaged 0.92 goals scored and 1.67 conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model's selection includes Over 1.5 goals with 79.2% probability and Over 3.5 cards with 71.8% probability. Dundalk is expected to win 53% of the time, draw 25% of the time, and Sligo Rovers to win 22% of the time.
A surprise draw in the Ireland: Premier Division as Dundalk held Sligo Rovers to a 1-1 stalemate, extending their run of draws to four matches. The pre-match favourite, Dundalk, failed to come through, with the model's selection of a Home win proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the probability of a Dundalk win was 53%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.2%, while Over 3.5 cards also hit, with a probability of 71.8%.
Dundalk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.47 | 1.93 | 1.21 | 1.44 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.92 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.85 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.67 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.07 | 1.53 | 0.73 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.82 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 1.72 | 1.33 | 1.89 | 0.56 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Sligo Rovers goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 12% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
DundalkSligo RoversDundalk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.9 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 21.6 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 25.5 | 19.0 | 32.0 |
| vs Similar (32) | 11.1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 23.2 | 21.8 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (16) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 71% | 67% | 75% | 32% | 29% | 35% | 71% | 58% | 83% |
| % under line | 29% | 33% | 25% | 68% | 71% | 65% | 29% | 42% | 17% |
Sligo Rovers| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 19.5 | 20.8 | 18.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.3 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 18.7 | 21.4 | 15.7 |
| vs Similar (31) | 11.3 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 19.7 | 20.3 | 19.1 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 12.7 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 20.3 | 22.5 | 16.0 |
| % over line | 61% | 58% | 65% | 52% | 58% | 46% | 29% | 35% | 22% |
| % under line | 39% | 42% | 35% | 48% | 42% | 54% | 71% | 65% | 78% |
Dundalk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.56 | 0.92 | 0.42 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Dundalk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.97 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.80 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.67 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 1.03 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.27 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.15 | -2.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72.2% | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.16 | - | - | - | -2.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/06/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/03/24 | H | 0-5 | |
| 20/10/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/08/23 | H | 1-0 |
Dundalk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 19/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-3 |
Sligo Rovers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 54 | 59% | 2.0 | 43 | 24 | +19 | 2.5 | 70% | 44% | 26% | 8.3 | 15% | 4.9 | 76% | 23.3 | 58% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 63% |
| 2 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 50 | 50% | 1.8 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 2.4 | 75% | 36% | 29% | 10.2 | 70% | 4.8 | 69% | 23.1 | 59% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 3 |  Bohemians | 28 | 47 | 46% | 1.7 | 47 | 34 | +13 | 2.9 | 79% | 57% | 36% | 10.1 | 59% | 4.2 | 56% | 23.1 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 4 | Dundalk | 28 | 37 | 32% | 1.3 | 43 | 43 | +0 | 3.1 | 89% | 61% | 36% | 10.9 | 70% | 5.2 | 70% | 24.0 | 74% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 26 | 34 | 31% | 1.3 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 2.8 | 77% | 65% | 31% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.4 | 72% | 20.8 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 6 |  Derry City | 28 | 33 | 25% | 1.2 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 29% | 10.3 | 63% | 5.0 | 70% | 23.2 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 7 |  Galway United | 27 | 33 | 30% | 1.2 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 33% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.9 | 58% | 23.8 | 69% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 8 |  Waterford | 28 | 29 | 21% | 1.0 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 3.0 | 79% | 46% | 39% | 11.6 | 63% | 4.2 | 56% | 22.9 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 39% |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 28 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 2.7 | 75% | 50% | 32% | 10.4 | 48% | 4.4 | 63% | 22.8 | 67% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 28 | 23 | 18% | 0.8 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 2.4 | 71% | 46% | 29% | 10.9 | 59% | 4.0 | 48% | 19.4 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 47% |