Dundalk are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s favourite result being a home win. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at about 14% probability. Dundalk’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against similar opposition, while St Patrick’s Athl. on the road average 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded. The probabilities for the result are 45% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 26% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with 76.7% confidence and Over 1.5 with 71.6% confidence. The recent form narrative starts with Dundalk coming off a win, whereas St Patrick’s Athl. return from a defeat. All figures are taken from the model’s output.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Dundalk, fell short in a match that saw St Patrick’s Athl. lift the trophy with a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win with a 45% probability, but the pick was wrong. The game’s final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, at 76.7%, hit, while its Over 1.5 choice, at 71.6%, also hit. Dundalk’s recent form, a win after a streak of losses, gave them a slight edge, yet St Patrick’s Athl. ended their run of defeats with a convincing away triumph. The predicted most likely total of two goals, at 27%, did not materialise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundalk win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. win✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.77
1.93
0.36
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
0.83
2.00
0.50
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.21
1.10
1.20
1.33
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.56
1.80
0.40
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
7.6%
1-2 ✓
6.5%
2-2
4.6%
Dundalk goals ↓
St Patrick's Athl. goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
7.6%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.0%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.2%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = St Patrick's Athl. goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
Dundalk is 0.06 points better than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
Dundalk is 0.19 goals worse than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
Dundalk is 0.14 goals better than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
St Patrick's Athl.
For 5.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
6.0
10.0
8.0
10.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
12.5
13.0
12.0
0.3
0.0
0.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
9%
6%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
25%
50%
0%
91%
94%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
10.8
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
8.4
Derry City
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.7
Derry City
6.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.7
Sligo Rovers
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shamrock Rovers
24.0
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.27
0.79
0.14
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.26
0.70
0.20
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
1.14
0.21
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.57
1.30
0.30
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.74
0.60
0.70
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.22
0.80
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundalk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Horgan33%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Cian Dillon20%
Danny Mullen18%
Tyreke Wilson17%
Trevor Clarke17%
Eoin Kenny14%
Ronan Teahan14%
D. McDaid7%
Bobby Burns7%
Shane Tracey6%
Robert Cornwall6%
Aodh Dervin4%
H. Groome4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinnie Leonard33%
Bobby Burns32%
Keith Buckley30%
Aodh Dervin28%
Robert Cornwall28%
Mayowa Animasahun28%
Tom Grivosti25%
Egor Vassenin25%
Harvey Warren21%
Cian Dillon20%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Trevor Clarke17%
T. Wilson16%
Shane Tracey12%
D. Horgan11%
Ronan Teahan10%
Danny Mullen9%
Gbemi Arubi9%
Tyreke Wilson9%
H. Groome8%
D. McDaid7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Grivosti50%
D. Horgan30%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Gbemi Arubi14%
Eoin Kenny10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Aodh Dervin8%
T. Wilson5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Keith Buckley4%
Bobby Burns0%
Danny Mullen0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Cian Dillon0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Ronan Teahan0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Horgan41%
Cian Dillon40%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Danny Mullen18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Bobby Burns7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Ronan Teahan5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
Aodh Dervin0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
St Patrick's Athl. · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Olusanya50%
A. Keena26%
K. Leavy25%
Ryan Edmondson22%
Zachary Elbouzedi20%
R. Palmer17%
Christopher Forrester11%
S. Hoare9%
Max Mata8%
Anto Breslin5%
J. Lennon4%
D. Nugent4%
J. Brown4%
B. Baggley4%
Luke Turner4%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
J. McClelland0%
J. Redmond0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Ryan Sheridan0%
Sam Rooney0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Hoare27%
Anthony Olusanya25%
J. Lennon25%
Ryan Sheridan25%
Ronan Boyce20%
J. Brown19%
R. Palmer17%
Ryan Edmondson15%
J. Redmond14%
Luke Turner11%
Tom Grivosti10%
K. Leavy8%
Max Mata8%
Christopher Forrester5%
J. McClelland5%
Anto Breslin5%
Joseph Anang4%
D. Nugent4%
B. Baggley4%
A. Keena0%
D. Rogers0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Sam Rooney0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Sheridan25%
A. Keena17%
Zachary Elbouzedi13%
K. Leavy12%
J. Brown12%
Luke Turner11%
J. McClelland10%
J. Lennon8%
J. Redmond7%
R. Palmer6%
Christopher Forrester5%
Ryan Edmondson4%
B. Baggley4%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
S. Hoare0%
D. Nugent0%
Anto Breslin0%
Max Mata0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Sam Rooney0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Keena26%
Ryan Edmondson26%
Max Mata15%
K. Leavy12%
Christopher Forrester11%
Luke Turner7%
Zachary Elbouzedi7%
R. Palmer6%
J. McClelland5%
J. Brown4%
B. Baggley0%
D. Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
S. Hoare0%
D. Nugent0%
J. Lennon0%
Anto Breslin0%
J. Redmond0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Joseph Anang0%
Glory Nzingo0%
Ryan Sheridan0%
Sam Rooney0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
Dundalk's squad is €2m less valuable than St Patrick's Athl.'s (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Dundalk's attack is €1m less valuable than St Patrick's Athl.'s (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
UCD
Finn Harps
Waterford