PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Dundee and Kilmarnock is a tight affair, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are evenly split: 35% for a Dundee victory, 30% for a draw, and 35% for a Kilmarnock win. The average goal count sits at 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals, a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability, reflecting the balanced scoring patterns.
Dundee, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Kilmarnock, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and only 0.56 conceded. Both teams have recently lost their opening games, which adds to the uncertainty.
The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls (87.6%), Over 8.5 corners (85.3% miss), Under 5.5 cards (81.2%), Under 23.5 fouls (77.1%), Over 9.5 corners (76.9% miss), Under 3.5 (76.2%), Over 2.5 cards (73.5%), and Over 1.5 (72.2%). Each is presented with its own probability, and no selection is tied to a match result.
The 1-1 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong. The model had given the home side a 35% chance of triumph, but the result was a stalemate. Dundee’s recent form, a win-loss-win-loss-win sequence, ended with a defeat to Hibernian, while Kilmarnock, also coming off a loss to Dundee United, finished their last five with a win, loss, loss, loss, draw. The model’s picks performed unevenly: Under 25.5 fouls (87.6%) hit, Over 8.5 corners (85.3%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (81.2%) hit, Under 23.5 fouls (77.1%) hit, Over 9.5 corners (76.9%) missed, Under 3.5 (76.2%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (73.5%) hit, and Over 1.5 (72.2%) hit.
Dundee| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.90 | 1.27 | 1.60 | 1.47 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.87 | 2.60 | 0.71 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.87 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 1.12 | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Kilmarnock| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0.83 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.56 | 0.61 | 2.11 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Kilmarnock goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
DundeeKilmarnockDundee| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.2 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 20.4 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 11.3 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 18.8 | 17.9 | 19.6 |
| vs Similar (30) | 11.1 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 20.4 | 19.9 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 71% | 81% | 60% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 34% | 29% | 40% |
| % under line | 29% | 19% | 40% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 66% | 71% | 60% |
Kilmarnock| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 12.1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 21.3 | 22.1 | 20.4 |
| vs Similar (31) | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 70% | 68% | 72% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 54% | 58% | 50% |
| % under line | 30% | 32% | 28% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 50% |
Dundee| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.40 | 1.07 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 1.62 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.71 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Kilmarnock| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.25 | 1.08 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Dundee| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.47 | 1.53 | 0.57 | 1.71 | 0.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Kilmarnock| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.47 | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.17 | 1.44 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 9.5 corners | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/12/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/09/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 06/02/19 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/12/18 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/10/18 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/02/18 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/11/17 | H | 0-0 |
Dundee| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/24 | A | 5-2 | |
| 11/05/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/05/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 28/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 30/03/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-2 |
Kilmarnock| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/24 | H | 0-5 | |
| 11/05/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/05/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 27/04/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/03/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 5-2 | |
| 02/03/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/02/24 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Celtic | 38 | 93 | 76% | 2.4 | 95 | 30 | +65 | 3.3 | 89% | 74% | 34% | 12.8 | 76% | 3.4 | 44% | 19.9 | 29% | 116 | 56 | 20 | 41 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 69% |
| 2 |  Rangers | 38 | 85 | 71% | 2.2 | 87 | 32 | +55 | 3.1 | 84% | 66% | 37% | 11.3 | 66% | 4.0 | 66% | 22.0 | 50% | 136 | 38 | 44 | 54 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 63% |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 38 | 68 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 42 | +12 | 2.5 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 12.2 | 79% | 4.2 | 62% | 22.2 | 55% | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Kilmarnock | 38 | 56 | 37% | 1.5 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 2.4 | 63% | 42% | 29% | 11.0 | 68% | 4.4 | 67% | 22.7 | 53% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 5 |  Aberdeen | 38 | 48 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 29% | 10.2 | 61% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.5 | 74% | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 6 |  ST Mirren | 38 | 47 | 34% | 1.2 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 2.6 | 74% | 50% | 24% | 10.5 | 66% | 3.2 | 44% | 21.5 | 45% | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 7 |  Hibernian | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 2.9 | 84% | 66% | 39% | 10.4 | 63% | 4.1 | 61% | 20.7 | 37% | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 8 |  Motherwell | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 56 | 59 | -3 | 3.0 | 82% | 55% | 34% | 10.6 | 61% | 4.2 | 59% | 21.9 | 53% | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 9 | Dundee | 38 | 42 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 68 | -19 | 3.1 | 79% | 63% | 39% | 11.4 | 74% | 4.1 | 56% | 19.5 | 32% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 10 |  Ross County | 40 | 41 | 25% | 1.0 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.8 | 75% | 52% | 35% | 11.2 | 66% | 3.9 | 61% | 22.0 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 11 |  ST Johnstone | 38 | 35 | 21% | 0.9 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 2.2 | 74% | 37% | 16% | 10.4 | 55% | 3.9 | 58% | 21.7 | 50% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 12 |  Livingston | 38 | 25 | 13% | 0.7 | 29 | 70 | -41 | 2.6 | 74% | 47% | 29% | 9.2 | 39% | 3.5 | 46% | 23.6 | 66% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 43% |
| 13 |  Partick | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 |  Raith Rovers | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 15 |  Airdrie United | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |