Dundee’s recent win streak and a home advantage make a victory the most likely outcome, with the model picking a home win at 43%. The match is expected to be modestly productive, with an average of 2.5 goals and a 27% chance that exactly two goals will be scored. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
Dundee, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while ST Johnstone, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. This suggests a tight game where the home side’s attacking edge may prove decisive.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (95.7% with a 4% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (94.4% with a 2% edge). The probabilities for a home win, draw and away win remain 43%, 29% and 28% respectively.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, wrong. Dundee had been on a mixed run, coming off a draw, while St Johnstone mirrored that form. The model had given Dundee a 42% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Under 6.5 at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Under 5.5 at 95.7%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.69
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.78
Dafabet
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
SBO
2.71
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.42
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 37.7% · @ 2.49
Edge
-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.54
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
2.14
1.29
1.12
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.75
1.67
1.67
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.19
2.29
1.14
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.63
2.20
0.73
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.58
0.54
2.29
0.79
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.25-2.3%
Under 1.5
27.3%
@ 3.76+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.03
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
@ 1.83-5.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.96+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
SBO
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.99
Betano
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
@ 3.05-6.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
@ 1.36+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.15
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.65-4.6%
No
48.2%
@ 2.13+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%@ 6.26+6.7%
1-0
10.0%@ 8.90+5.0%
0-0
9.4%@ 10.84+5.3%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.21+3.9%
2-0
7.9%@ 13.15+4.4%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.59+2.6%
1-2
7.1%@ 8.87+2.0%
0-2
5.1%@ 12.13+1.4%
Dundee goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.8%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.6%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Dundee is 0.06 points better than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dundee is 0.11 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Dundee is 0.05 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 9.5 · Total 17.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 6.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
3.2
3.0
3.3
22.0
21.4
22.5
vs Stronger (21)
10.2
10.1
10.2
2.8
2.9
2.6
21.6
22.0
21.1
vs Similar (27)
9.1
9.8
8.5
3.7
3.2
4.1
22.6
21.5
23.5
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
12.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.0
14.0
-
% over line
61%
68%
55%
44%
42%
46%
52%
41%
64%
% under line
39%
32%
45%
56%
58%
54%
48%
59%
36%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.7
1.4
1.4
1.3
21.5
23.9
19.4
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
-
12.0
0.0
-
0.0
25.0
-
25.0
vs Similar (45)
9.7
9.9
9.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
21.9
23.9
19.6
vs Weaker (4)
8.0
-
8.0
0.5
0.0
0.7
13.0
-
13.0
% over line
47%
50%
44%
22%
28%
16%
53%
62%
44%
% under line
53%
50%
56%
78%
72%
84%
47%
38%
56%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.8
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Aberdeen
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee
21.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.1%
@ 1.85+5.6%
Under 9.5
43.9%
@ 1.88-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.9%
@ 1.60-6.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
@ 2.20+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.23
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dundee or Draw✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.50
Edge
+8.8%
42%
29%
29%
covers Dundee + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
SBO
1.50
Dundee or ST Johnstone✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.1%
42%
29%
29%
covers Dundee + ST Johnstone
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or ST Johnstone✓ Hit
58.2%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.44
Edge
-6.7%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + ST Johnstone
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dundee over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Under
24.9%
@ 3.45-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
10Bet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Dundee over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.4%
@ 2.37+0.9%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.55-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
BetVictor
2.38
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Dundee over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 5.44-0.7%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.12+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Dundee over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 13.12-2.0%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.26-6.8%
Under
32.7%
@ 3.60+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.91
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
@ 2.26-10.6%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.60+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.61
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 5.16-7.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.14+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
ST Johnstone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.81-4.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dundee, so a minus line means Dundee give that many goals of a start and ST Johnstone receive them. At -1, Dundee must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dundee win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dundee)Actual: ST Johnstone
Dundee -2
7.6%
@ 11.02-0.5%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 6.92-0.0%
ST Johnstone +2
79.6%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Dundee)Actual: ST Johnstone
Dundee -1
20.4%
@ 5.19+3.1%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 4.25+0.3%
ST Johnstone +1
58.2%
@ 1.46-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Away
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (Dundee)Actual: Dundee
Dundee +1
71.0%
@ 1.50+10.9%
Draw +1
17.0%
@ 4.21-4.4%
ST Johnstone -1
12.0%
@ 4.88-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Away
Unibet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Dundee)Actual: Dundee
Dundee +2
88.0%
@ 1.14+9.8%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 6.76-4.9%
ST Johnstone -2
3.7%
@ 10.42-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.79
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.58
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
1.13
0.40
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.23
1.14
0.43
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.35-2.1%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 3.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.66-4.4%
Under 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.43+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Superbet
2.67
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.57-3.4%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.08+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.7%
@ 2.07+2.8%
Under
52.3%
@ 1.69-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 6.57-2.6%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 16.50-2.7%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.7%
@ 2.02-10.5%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.73+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.80
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 6.25-7.2%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.09+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 15.88-5.1%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.17
1.17
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
1.43
0.43
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
1.07
0.33
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.31
1.14
0.36
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.20-0.4%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 4.11+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.2%
@ 2.00-2.4%
Under 1.5
55.8%
@ 1.75+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.1%
@ 4.15-3.3%
Under 2.5
80.9%
@ 1.20+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
William Hil
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.9%
@ 1.74+3.6%
Under
43.1%
@ 1.99-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 4.58+1.1%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.16-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 12.00-2.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.9%
@ 1.70-9.8%
Under
55.1%
@ 2.04+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 4.37-9.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.17+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 11.25-5.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.0%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.8%
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+17.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.6%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.7%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.0%
1.50
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
SBO
1.50
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
1.50
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Westley40%
D. Wright20%
C. Reilly20%
Owen Bevan20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton20%
D. Wright20%
Ryan Finnigan20%
J. Westley20%
Owen Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
C. Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
D. Wright0%
F. Robertson0%
C. Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
J. Westley0%
B. Wales0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Reilly20%
J. Westley20%
Joe Bevan20%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
D. Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
F. Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Bradley Fink0%
I. Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
B. Wales0%
Owen Bevan0%
ST Johnstone
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Fowler50%
Ruari Paton25%
Cheick Diabate25%
K. Fotheringham25%
J. Holt0%
S. Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
J. Gullan0%
R. McAlear0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Smith33%
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Cheick Diabate25%
Z. Mitchell25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
R. McAlear0%
K. Fotheringham0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Tait33%
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Josh Fowler25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
R. McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
K. Fotheringham0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Stanton25%
J. Gullan25%
Ruari Paton25%
J. Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
L. Smith0%
R. McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
K. Fotheringham0%
M. Tait0%
T. Steward0%
Z. Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Dundee's attack is €1m less valuable than ST Johnstone's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Dundee and ST Johnstone have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock