Pythia gives Dunfermline a 50% win probability against Arbroath in the Scotland: Championship on 2026-05-01, with 30% for the draw and 20% for Arbroath. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (14.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%), Under 11.5 corners (81%), Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 5.5 cards (77%).
Results analysis
Dunfermline finished 0-0 against Arbroath (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 50% home win, 30% draw and 20% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.14
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.12
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.16
Edge
-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
1.71
1.21
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.27
1.60
1.60
1.58
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.00
0.25
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.20
0.87
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.00
1.25
0.92
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.3%
@ 2.15-4.8%
Under 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.63+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.1%
1-1
13.6%
0-0 ✓
12.1%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.2%
1-2
5.0%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.0%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.2%
4.1%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Dunfermline is 0.06 points better than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Dunfermline is 0.19 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Dunfermline is 0.12 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 4.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 4.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.0
7.0
7.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
23.9
24.3
23.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
7.0
7.0
7.0
1.6
1.5
1.7
23.9
24.3
23.5
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
8%
0%
17%
20%
16%
24%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
92%
100%
83%
80%
84%
76%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.6
7.6
7.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
23.7
22.1
25.0
vs Stronger (8)
7.8
7.0
8.5
4.2
4.5
4.0
24.0
22.2
25.8
vs Similar (41)
8.0
8.3
7.7
0.5
0.6
0.5
24.2
22.0
26.3
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
4.0
18.0
-
18.0
% over line
27%
14%
38%
20%
24%
16%
60%
43%
75%
% under line
73%
86%
62%
80%
76%
84%
40%
57%
25%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Ross County
10.9
ST Johnstone
10.3
Partick
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Arbroath
9.8
Ayr
9.8
Dunfermline
9.3
Queens Park
9.0
Raith Rvs
8.7
Stenhousemuir
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.6
Ayr
4.5
Partick
4.4
ST Johnstone
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.2
Queens Park
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.3
ST Johnstone
22.8
Ayr
22.7
Morton
21.8
Raith Rvs
21.6
Queens Park
21.4
Ross County
21.4
Dunfermline
21.2
Arbroath
20.7
Partick
20.2
Airdrie United
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.4%
Under 9.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.1%
Under 21.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.68
0.40
0.90
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.25
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.40
0.13
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.42
0.42
0.17
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
AYR (26)
€3m
QP (28)
€3m
RR (21)
€2m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's squad is €4m more valuable than Arbroath's (€6m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
QP (14)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
AYR (8)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €2m more valuable than Arbroath's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
AYR (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
QP (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (14)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
AYR (11)
€1m
QP (12)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
STE (0)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Johnstone
Partick
Morton
Ross County
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South