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Dunfermline vs Falkirk Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 0-0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
42%
28%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Falkirk
Falkirk
Scotland: FA Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Dunfermline are tipped to win, a 42% chance versus 28% for a draw and 30% for Falkirk. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Dunfermline’s home form shows 1.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against similar opposition, while Falkirk’s away form averages 1.36 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.5%), Home +2 handicap (87.0%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). The home side’s recent five results are LLDDW, after a 0-2 loss to Livingston, while Falkirk’s last five are DLWDL, coming off a 0-0 draw with Motherwell.

Results analysis

The 0-0 draw shocked fans after Dunfermline’s recent form, which had slipped to two straight defeats, and Falkirk had only managed a draw in their last outing. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 42% chance, yet the match ended in a stalemate, so the model’s pick was wrong. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.5%), Home +2 handicap (87.0%), and Under 4.5 (86.3%). The final score of 0-0 confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals and all under-goal selections, but it missed the expected home victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Falkirk win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W30W30W30W22D31W30W30W02L22DH·ROS03/03H·ABE07/03H·RAI14/03H·RAI14/03A·ROS21/03H·MOR04/04A·AYR07/04A·AYR07/04A·PAR11/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.101.880.941.461.31
vs Stronger (2)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (25)1.601.201.771.151.421.25
vs Weaker (3)2.331.002.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FalkirkFalkirk

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W10W23L01L51W21W11D12L32W36LA·STE08/02H·DUN11/02H·DUN14/02A·HEA21/02H·KIL28/02H·DUN06/03A·ABE14/03H·ST 21/03A·MOT04/04H·RAN12/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.271.731.401.131.13
vs Stronger (6)0.672.331.332.670.002.00
vs Similar (23)1.611.041.831.081.361.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
0-0 ✓
7.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.4%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.5%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Falkirk goals →
01234
07.9%7.0%5.0%2.0%0.6%
18.7%13%7.4%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.0%5.5%2.2%0.7%
33.7%4.5%2.7%1.1%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Falkirk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Aberdeen
2.60
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Dundee North End
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Brechin
2.25
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Fraserburgh
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Queen's Park
1.75
Heart Of Midlothian
1.75
Dunbar United
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Turriff United
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Culter
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Falkirk
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Elgin
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Tweedmouth
1.03
Lossiemouth
1.03
Johnstone Burgh
1.03
St Cadoc's
1.03
Partick
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Edinburgh City
0.50
Inverurie Loco Works
0.50
Keith
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Ross County
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Dunfermline is 0.50 points better than Falkirk in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Stirling
4.50
Threave Rovers
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Ayr Utd
3.33
Lochee United
3.33
Fraserburgh
3.25
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Aberdeen
2.60
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Dundee North End
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Culter
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
Brechin
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Partick
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Queen's Park
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Dunfermline
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Tweedmouth
1.44
Lossiemouth
1.44
Johnstone Burgh
1.44
St Cadoc's
1.44
Elgin
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Hibernian
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Edinburgh City
1.00
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Keith
0.50
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Dunfermline is 0.33 goals worse than Falkirk in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Culter
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
East Fife
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Heart Of Midlothian
1.25
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Stirling
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Turriff United
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Fraserburgh
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Falkirk
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Airdrie United
1.67
Bo'ness United
1.67
Forfar
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Morton
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Partick
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Dunbar United
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Inverurie Loco Works
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Keith
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Tweedmouth
2.14
Lossiemouth
2.14
Johnstone Burgh
2.14
St Cadoc's
2.14
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Montrose
2.50
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
Ross County
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Invergordon
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Dunfermline is 0.17 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

130371762354458138135999A·AYRH·RAIH·ABEH·QUEA·RAIH·AYRA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

60142411113221425622536A·AYRH·RAIH·ABEH·QUEA·RAIH·AYRA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.9

⚠️ Fouls

32011136138161416991010171524192430182032A·AYRH·RAIH·ABEH·QUEA·RAIH·AYRA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FalkirkFalkirk

For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

140212674104553248454446381114105129810H·RANA·MOTH·ST A·ABEH·DUNH·KILA·HEAH·DUNH·DUNA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5

🟨 Cards

7034321211332312331437531454547H·RANA·MOTH·ST A·ABEH·DUNH·KILA·HEAH·DUNH·DUNA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.6

⚠️ Fouls

300161315151514617710915109819144141629302923172419271830H·RANA·MOTH·ST A·ABEH·DUNH·KILA·HEAH·DUNH·DUNA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)7.67.97.21.21.21.224.424.324.6
vs Stronger (2)13.013.0-1.01.0-24.024.0-
vs Similar (42)7.17.07.21.41.51.324.524.324.6
vs Weaker (6)---0.00.00.0---
% over line17%14%20%20%18%23%75%71%80%
% under line83%86%80%80%82%77%25%29%20%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FalkirkFalkirk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.48.610.43.23.53.025.425.125.7
vs Stronger (7)9.07.710.33.34.32.524.026.022.0
vs Similar (35)9.48.610.43.84.13.625.725.126.5
vs Weaker (8)11.011.0-0.61.00.024.024.0-
% over line51%40%65%48%60%36%76%75%76%
% under line49%60%35%52%40%64%24%25%24%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Morton
10.9
Stirling
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.6
Rangers
10.6
Dumbarton
10.6
Hibernian
10.5
East Kilbride
10.5
Aberdeen
10.5
Elgin
10.4
Partick
10.2
Stranraer
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Dundee
10.0
East Fife
9.9
Arbroath
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.7
Clyde
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Falkirk
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.1
Inverness CT
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Motherwell
8.6
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Peterhead
5.1
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Aberdeen
4.8
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Morton
4.7
Motherwell
4.5
Livingston
4.5
Forfar
4.5
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Hibernian
4.4
ST Johnstone
4.4
Partick
4.3
Rangers
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Celtic
3.6
ST Mirren
3.5
Dundee
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Inverness CT
3.5
Dumbarton
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.1
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.0
East Kilbride
26.7
Motherwell
26.0
Livingston
25.4
Rangers
25.3
Stenhousemuir
25.0
Aberdeen
24.9
Falkirk
24.6
Forfar
24.4
Edinburgh City
24.1
Kilmarnock
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.4
East Fife
23.0
ST Johnstone
22.9
Elgin
22.5
Stranraer
22.4
Clyde
22.4
Montrose
22.2
Hibernian
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.1
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Morton
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.7
Inverness CT
21.7
ST Mirren
21.7
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.5
Ross County
21.4
Dunfermline
21.3
Stirling
21.0
Arbroath
20.7
Cove Rangers
20.6
Partick
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.0
Spartans
19.8
Queen's Park
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.5%
Under 9.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.8%
Under 21.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunfermline or Draw✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Dunfermline + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline or Falkirk✗ Miss
72.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Dunfermline + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Falkirk✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Draw + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dunfermline, so a minus line means Dunfermline give that many goals of a start and Falkirk receive them. At -1, Dunfermline must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunfermline win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Falkirk
Dunfermline -2
8.3%
Draw -2
13.0%
Falkirk +2
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Falkirk
Dunfermline -1
21.2%
Draw -1
20.9%
Falkirk +1
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Dunfermline
Dunfermline +1
70.1%
Draw +1
16.9%
Falkirk -1
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Dunfermline
Dunfermline +2
87.0%
Draw +2
8.7%
Falkirk -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W10W10W12L01L10W10W02L01LH·ROS03/03H·ABE07/03H·RAI14/03H·RAI14/03A·ROS21/03H·MOR04/04A·AYR07/04A·AYR07/04A·PAR11/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.710.650.620.77
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (25)0.520.720.460.770.580.67
vs Weaker (3)1.671.002.000.501.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FalkirkFalkirk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D01L31W21W00D11D21W21WA·STE08/02H·DUN11/02H·DUN14/02A·HEA21/02H·KIL28/02H·DUN06/03A·ABE14/03H·ST 21/03A·MOT04/04H·RAN12/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.000.600.400.60
vs Stronger (6)0.331.000.671.000.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.830.521.080.500.550.55
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W20W20W10W30W20W20W00D21WH·ROS03/03H·ABE07/03H·RAI14/03H·RAI14/03A·ROS21/03H·MOR04/04A·AYR07/04A·AYR07/04A·PAR11/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.401.180.290.850.54
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (25)1.080.481.310.380.830.58
vs Weaker (3)0.670.000.500.001.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FalkirkFalkirk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W12L00D20W00D11D01L11D15LA·STE08/02H·DUN11/02H·DUN14/02A·HEA21/02H·KIL28/02H·DUN06/03A·ABE14/03H·ST 21/03A·MOT04/04H·RAN12/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.730.800.730.53
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.671.670.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.780.520.750.580.820.45
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.9%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals96.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.594.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals93.6%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals87.5%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap87.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.586.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls82.1%--------
Home under 2.5 goals81.3%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap78.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards78.0%--------
Home over 0.5 goals77.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards76.5%--------
Over 1.576.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners75.6%--------
Home or Away72.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals70.4%-------✗ Miss
Home or Draw70.1%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap70.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's squad is €1m less valuable than Falkirk's (€6m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Dunfermline and Falkirk have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Dunfermline's midfield is €1m less valuable than Falkirk's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Dunfermline and Falkirk have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
3
Draws
3
FAL wins

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Falkirk · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25AFalkirk Vs DUN1-0
27/12/24HDUN Vs Falkirk3-3
26/10/24AFalkirk Vs DUN2-1
10/08/24HDUN Vs Falkirk0-2
08/04/23AFalkirk Vs DUN2-2
07/03/23HDUN Vs Falkirk2-0
05/11/22AFalkirk Vs DUN0-1
17/09/22HDUN Vs Falkirk1-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/26AAirdrie United Vs DUN2-2
11/04/26APartick Vs DUN2-0
07/04/26AAyr Utd Vs DUN0-3
07/04/26AAyr Vs DUN0-3
04/04/26HDUN Vs Morton3-1
21/03/26ARoss County Vs DUN2-2
14/03/26HDUN Vs Raith Rovers3-0
14/03/26HDUN Vs Raith Rvs3-0
07/03/26HDUN Vs Aberdeen3-0
03/03/26HDUN Vs Ross County3-0

FalkirkFalkirk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26HFAL Vs Rangers3-6
04/04/26AMotherwell Vs FAL2-3
21/03/26HFAL Vs ST Mirren1-2
14/03/26AAberdeen Vs FAL1-1
06/03/26HFAL Vs Dundee Utd2-1
28/02/26HFAL Vs Kilmarnock5-1
21/02/26AHeart Of Midlothian Vs FAL1-0
14/02/26HFAL Vs Dundee Utd2-3
11/02/26HFAL Vs Dundee1-0
08/02/26AStenhousemuir Vs FAL0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: FA Cup
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.70
HomeWWWWW1.89
AwayDWWLD1.45
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%57%41%
AVG goals2.522.392.68
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.541.571.50
Conceded0.980.821.18
BTTS36%32%41%
Clean Sheet46%54%36%
Corners7.587.867.20
Cards4.694.385.20
Falkirk
Falkirk
Scotland: FA Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.48
HomeLWWLL1.64
AwayWWLDW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.983.482.48
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %58%72%44%
Over 3.5 %38%56%20%
Scored1.622.041.20
Conceded1.361.441.28
BTTS56%72%40%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners9.418.5510.41
Cards4.264.354.17

🏆 16. League Table

Dunfermline plays in Scotland - Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST JohnstoneST Johnstone48103
60%
2.1
8734+53
2.5
67%
44%
29%
10.0
50%
4.8
83%
22.5
67%
5
3121.80.7
-
2PartickPartick4889
48%
1.9
7246+26
2.5
75%
44%
27%
10.7
67%
4.6
58%
20.2
33%
3
1111.51.0
-
3DunfermlineDunfermline4874
44%
1.5
6949+20
2.5
73%
44%
25%
7.0
8%
4.8
83%
23.9
67%
6
3121.41.0
-
4ArbroathArbroath4871
38%
1.5
6055+5
2.4
69%
46%
21%
8.2
33%
4.2
67%
23.8
67%
1
0111.21.1
-
5MortonMorton4850
21%
1.0
4866-18
2.4
71%
44%
25%
10.2
58%
4.5
50%
23.4
58%
2
1111.01.4
-
6Ross CountyRoss County4849
25%
1.0
5075-25
2.6
69%
50%
29%
8.0
25%
3.9
58%
22.8
67%
2
1011.01.6
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5047
20%
0.9
4667-21
2.3
64%
46%
22%
10.6
67%
3.3
50%
18.3
25%
0
0000.91.3
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs		3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
9.6
47%
4.3
56%
21.0
53%
2
1111.21.2
-
10Queens ParkQueens Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
8.7
39%
4.1
69%
21.8
56%
3
2011.01.3
-
11QueenQueen's Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12
A
Ayr		3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
10.0
50%
4.5
69%
22.4
58%
3
1111.11.3
-
13Ayr UtdAyr Utd3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
14Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
15StenhousemuirStenhousemuir45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
Falkirk plays in Scotland - Premiership
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3882
68%
2.2
7341+32
3.0
82%
68%
42%
10.6
61%
4.1
55%
21.8
37%
154
5538601.91.1
66%
2Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3880
63%
2.1
6734+33
2.7
71%
53%
29%
10.1
63%
4.7
63%
24.3
61%
33
19951.80.9
53%
3RangersRangers3872
53%
1.9
7643+33
3.1
82%
61%
37%
10.6
63%
4.2
58%
25.5
76%
127
5928402.01.1
58%
4MotherwellMotherwell3861
42%
1.6
5936+23
2.5
76%
39%
29%
8.1
32%
4.9
71%
26.3
79%
21
12461.60.9
58%
5HibernianHibernian3857
39%
1.5
5844+14
2.7
76%
55%
29%
10.6
68%
4.4
61%
23.2
66%
30
141061.51.2
47%
6FalkirkFalkirk3849
37%
1.3
5062-12
2.9
74%
58%
34%
9.6
53%
4.2
63%
25.3
76%
7
2231.31.6
51%
7Dundee UtdDundee Utd3845
26%
1.2
4960-11
2.9
89%
50%
34%
10.0
55%
4.2
61%
22.8
53%
0
0001.31.6
42%
8DundeeDundee3842
29%
1.1
4261-19
2.7
71%
58%
34%
9.5
61%
3.7
51%
22.9
55%
12
2551.11.6
44%
9AberdeenAberdeen3840
29%
1.1
4055-15
2.5
74%
34%
24%
10.0
58%
4.9
69%
26.4
95%
24
10581.11.4
48%
10KilmarnockKilmarnock3840
26%
1.1
5068-18
3.1
84%
66%
42%
9.7
53%
4.5
71%
25.0
74%
13
5351.31.8
42%
11ST MirrenST Mirren4038
22%
0.9
3256-24
2.2
68%
30%
15%
11.1
71%
3.3
38%
22.3
58%
8
3320.81.4
46%
12LivingstonLivingston3821
5%
0.6
4075-35
3.0
84%
63%
39%
10.4
58%
4.2
65%
25.2
71%
6
2321.12.0
45%
13PartickPartick45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
6
3120.80.8
50%
15ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
1
0110.00.5
50%
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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