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Dunfermline vs Morton Result & Analysis

Date: 12/12/2020
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
64%
22%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Morton
Morton
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✗ Miss
64.4%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.60
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.89
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton win✓ Hit
13.8%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.03
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D11D11D31W41W32W00D21W22DH·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.231.941.061.501.43
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (25)1.841.202.081.001.621.38
vs Weaker (4)1.001.501.331.330.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W40W23L11D10W01L32W05L00D02LA·AYR25/02A·QUE29/02A·INV03/03H·ARB07/03H·ALL17/10A·DUN24/10H·AYR31/10A·RAI07/11A·ARB21/11H·HEA05/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.671.601.531.071.80
vs Stronger (5)0.403.200.502.000.334.00
vs Similar (25)1.521.361.771.461.251.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.81+5.0%
Under 2.5
43.2%
@ 1.94-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.4%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
4.3%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Morton goals →
01234
06.1%3.6%2.0%0.6%0.1%
19.9%10%4.1%1.2%0.3%
211%9.9%4.3%1.3%0.3%
37.8%6.9%3.0%0.9%0.2%
44.1%3.6%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.37 points better than Morton in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.07).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.59 goals better than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.81).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dunfermline is 0.04 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 4.8 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

17059397368386651281756141210141112179711A·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8033442223121121326842042235A·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

2801513161142311141213118107779167628272725251917142513A·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PARH·QUEA·ARBH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MortonMorton

For 4.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

1404816310743115555249364127131114101061210H·HEAA·ARBA·RAIH·AYRA·DUNH·ALLH·ARBA·INVA·QUEA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50123111321422211210342554313H·HEAA·ARBA·RAIH·AYRA·DUNH·ALLH·ARBA·INVA·QUEA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 7.8 · Total 20.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

26014615111113101015619610111361148520262420212521191513H·HEAA·ARBA·RAIH·AYRA·DUNH·ALLH·ARBA·INVA·QUEA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.49.711.23.33.82.720.720.520.8
vs Stronger (1)12.012.0-8.08.0-27.027.0-
vs Similar (43)10.49.511.43.23.72.820.920.521.3
vs Weaker (6)10.210.59.52.83.81.018.219.216.0
% over line62%58%67%46%62%29%42%38%46%
% under line38%42%33%54%38%71%58%62%54%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.011.210.83.13.22.920.521.619.5
vs Stronger (9)13.413.213.62.72.23.020.321.019.8
vs Similar (41)10.510.910.13.13.42.920.621.719.4
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line66%76%56%36%48%24%38%44%32%
% under line34%24%44%64%52%76%62%56%68%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.8
Inverness CT
11.3
Morton
11.0
Queen of Sth
10.8
Heart Of Midlothian
10.7
Dunfermline
10.4
Ayr
10.4
Dundee
10.2
Raith Rvs
10.0
Arbroath
10.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Dundee
3.5
Arbroath
3.5
Raith Rvs
3.5
Dunfermline
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Morton
3.1
Queen of Sth
3.0
Inverness CT
3.0
Alloa
2.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.6
Dundee
24.1
Ayr
21.9
Raith Rvs
21.7
Arbroath
21.6
Alloa
20.8
Dunfermline
20.7
Morton
20.5
Inverness CT
20.3
Queen of Sth
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.9%
Under 9.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.6%
Under 21.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L00D11D11D20W00D00D01LH·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.810.440.570.79
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (25)0.800.601.000.420.620.77
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.330.670.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L00D10W01L01L02L00D01LA·AYR25/02A·QUE29/02A·INV03/03H·ARB07/03H·ALL17/10A·DUN24/10H·AYR31/10A·RAI07/11A·ARB21/11H·HEA05/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.800.730.400.73
vs Stronger (5)0.401.600.501.500.331.67
vs Similar (25)0.640.560.850.620.420.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W11D20W30W12L00D21W21WH·DUN29/02A·ARB04/03H·QUE07/03A·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.120.620.930.64
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (25)1.040.601.080.581.000.62
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.000.670.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W22D11D00D00D31W03L00D01LA·AYR25/02A·QUE29/02A·INV03/03H·ARB07/03H·ALL17/10A·DUN24/10H·AYR31/10A·RAI07/11A·ARB21/11H·HEA05/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.800.800.671.07
vs Stronger (5)0.001.600.000.500.002.33
vs Similar (25)0.880.800.920.850.830.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards85.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls83.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.580.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners73.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards72.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls71.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €3m more valuable than Morton's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Morton's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Morton's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
4
Draws
2
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Morton · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
11/01/20AMorton Vs DUN3-2
07/12/19HDUN Vs Morton3-1
05/10/19AMorton Vs DUN1-1
27/04/19HDUN Vs Morton0-1
26/01/19AMorton Vs DUN0-0
01/12/18HDUN Vs Morton3-0
22/09/18AMorton Vs DUN1-1
17/03/18HDUN Vs Morton0-0

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/20ARaith Rvs Vs DUN2-2
20/11/20HDUN Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-1
07/11/20AAyr Vs DUN0-0
31/10/20HDUN Vs Queen of Sth3-2
24/10/20AAlloa Vs DUN1-4
17/10/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT3-1
10/03/20APartick Vs DUN1-1
07/03/20HDUN Vs Queen of Sth1-1
04/03/20AArbroath Vs DUN0-0
29/02/20HDUN Vs Dundee Utd2-0

MortonMorton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/20HMOR Vs Heart Of Midlothian0-2
21/11/20AArbroath Vs MOR0-0
07/11/20ARaith Rvs Vs MOR5-0
31/10/20HMOR Vs Ayr3-2
24/10/20ADundee Vs MOR1-0
17/10/20HMOR Vs Alloa1-0
07/03/20HMOR Vs Arbroath1-1
03/03/20AInverness CT Vs MOR3-2
29/02/20AQueen of Sth Vs MOR0-4
25/02/20AAyr Vs MOR1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.36
HomeWDWWW1.62
AwayDDWDD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals2.442.542.33
Over 1.5 %64%69%58%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.321.501.12
Conceded1.121.041.21
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet28%27%29%
Corners10.449.7311.21
Cards3.283.852.67
Morton
Morton
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.22
HomeDDWWL1.56
AwayWLLLD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.822.842.80
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.241.481.00
Conceded1.581.361.80
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners11.0211.2410.80
Cards3.063.242.88

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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