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Dunfermline vs Morton Result & Analysis

Date: 13/03/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Vs
57%
25%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Morton
Morton
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dunfermline win✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.52
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.99
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.77
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D10W11D00D00D01L41W02L21W01LA·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.301.731.071.271.53
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.581.291.671.001.501.58
vs Weaker (4)1.251.502.001.500.501.50
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L22D01L01L11D22D02L10WA·ALL02/01H·DUN15/01A·QUE23/01H·INV27/01H·ARB30/01H·RAI06/02A·HEA20/02H·DUN27/02H·AYR06/03A·INV09/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.401.381.501.291.29
vs Stronger (5)0.402.000.001.500.672.33
vs Similar (25)1.521.281.571.501.451.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
@ 1.91-0.0%
Under 2.5
50.8%
@ 1.85+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0 ✓
11.5%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Morton goals →
01234
08.2%5.1%2.7%0.8%0.2%
111%12%4.8%1.4%0.3%
211%9.7%4.3%1.2%0.3%
36.5%5.7%2.5%0.7%0.2%
42.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.37 points better than Morton in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.07).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Dunfermline is 0.59 goals better than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 0.81).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Dunfermline is 0.04 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1404728558468769466675511101012141313121310A·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARBA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.5

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60331111211132326123101452A·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARBA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

280121014610510121513101311871489131422201522282319211727A·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MORA·INVH·ARBA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MortonMorton

For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

18023346212444671184499653101481018121315A·INVH·AYRH·DUNA·HEAH·RAIH·ARBH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6015222411423221116245552212A·INVH·AYRH·DUNA·HEAH·RAIH·ARBH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

3101012111016151471411614141310781117822213121252027171925A·INVH·AYRH·DUNA·HEAH·RAIH·ARBH·INVA·QUEH·DUNA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.79.611.73.13.52.820.519.721.2
vs Stronger (2)13.012.014.04.58.01.027.527.028.0
vs Similar (42)10.69.411.83.13.23.020.519.621.4
vs Weaker (6)10.310.310.33.04.02.017.818.017.7
% over line68%56%80%44%56%32%38%28%48%
% under line32%44%20%56%44%68%62%72%52%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.611.210.03.03.13.020.822.119.4
vs Stronger (9)12.012.211.82.92.23.419.922.018.2
vs Similar (41)10.311.09.53.03.22.921.022.119.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line62%76%48%34%40%28%38%44%32%
% under line38%24%52%66%60%72%62%56%68%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.6
Inverness CT
11.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.9
Dunfermline
10.7
Raith Rvs
10.6
Morton
10.6
Queen of Sth
10.5
Ayr
10.1
Dundee
10.1
Arbroath
9.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Raith Rvs
3.8
Dundee
3.4
Arbroath
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Dunfermline
3.1
Queen of Sth
3.1
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.1
Dundee
25.2
Arbroath
22.3
Raith Rvs
22.3
Alloa
22.2
Ayr
21.5
Inverness CT
21.3
Morton
20.8
Queen of Sth
20.6
Dunfermline
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.9%
Under 21.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W00D00D00D10W02L11D00DA·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.670.530.400.73
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.580.670.750.500.420.83
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.501.000.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L12L00D01L00D10W00D00DA·ALL02/01H·DUN15/01A·QUE23/01H·INV27/01H·ARB30/01H·RAI06/02A·HEA20/02H·DUN27/02H·AYR06/03A·INV09/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.690.690.570.64
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.001.000.330.67
vs Similar (25)0.720.640.790.640.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W10W01L00D00D01L31W00D10W01LA·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12A·INV29/12A·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.070.530.870.80
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.620.920.501.080.75
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MortonMorton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W10W01L00D11D12L02L10WA·ALL02/01H·DUN15/01A·QUE23/01H·INV27/01H·ARB30/01H·RAI06/02A·HEA20/02H·DUN27/02H·AYR06/03A·INV09/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.690.810.710.64
vs Stronger (5)0.201.200.000.500.331.67
vs Similar (25)0.800.640.790.860.820.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards88.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls80.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards77.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.575.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Dunfermline's squad is €3m more valuable than Morton's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €1m more valuable than Morton's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Dunfermline and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €2m more valuable than Morton's (€2m vs €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
DUN wins
3
Draws
3
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dunfermline vs Morton · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
15/01/21AMorton Vs DUN0-0
12/12/20HDUN Vs Morton1-2
11/01/20AMorton Vs DUN3-2
07/12/19HDUN Vs Morton3-1
05/10/19AMorton Vs DUN1-1
27/04/19HDUN Vs Morton0-1
26/01/19AMorton Vs DUN0-0
01/12/18HDUN Vs Morton3-0

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/02/21AQueen of Sth Vs DUN1-0
20/02/21HDUN Vs Alloa2-1
06/02/21AArbroath Vs DUN2-0
03/02/21HDUN Vs Raith Rvs4-1
30/01/21AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUN1-0
23/01/21HDUN Vs Ayr0-0
15/01/21AMorton Vs DUN0-0
29/12/20AInverness CT Vs DUN1-1
26/12/20HDUN Vs Arbroath1-0
19/12/20ADundee Vs DUN3-3

MortonMorton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/21AInverness CT Vs MOR0-1
06/03/21HMOR Vs Ayr0-2
27/02/21HMOR Vs Dundee2-2
20/02/21AHeart Of Midlothian Vs MOR1-1
06/02/21HMOR Vs Raith Rvs0-1
30/01/21HMOR Vs Arbroath0-1
27/01/21HMOR Vs Inverness CT2-2
23/01/21AQueen of Sth Vs MOR2-1
15/01/21HMOR Vs Dunfermline0-0
02/01/21AAlloa Vs MOR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.28
HomeLWDWW1.72
AwayDDLLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%52%16%
AVG goals2.582.722.44
Over 1.5 %70%76%64%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.361.641.08
Conceded1.221.081.36
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners10.669.6411.68
Cards3.143.482.80
Morton
Morton
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.34
HomeDLLDL1.52
AwayDDLDW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.842.882.80
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.321.521.12
Conceded1.521.361.68
BTTS56%60%52%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners10.6011.249.96
Cards3.023.082.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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