Dunfermline vs Queen's Park Result & Analysis

The contest between Dunfermline and Queen’s Park is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 36%. The draw and away win probabilities are identical at 29% and 36% respectively, leaving the match result finely balanced. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability, reflecting the evenly matched attacking and defensive figures: Dunfermline average 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Queen’s Park average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded on the road.

The suggested picks are: Under 25.5 fouls 86.0%, Under 5.5 cards 83.3%, Over 1.5 75.6% (miss), Under 23.5 fouls 74.7%, Under 3.5 72.3% (hit), Over 2.5 cards 71.2%. These selections give a clear picture of the likely flow of the match. Both sides have recently been on uneven runs - Dunfermline coming off a win, Queen’s Park a draw - adding to the uncertainty. The model’s forecast remains the most likely outcome, with the 1-1 scoreline standing out as the single best prediction.

A surprising 0-0 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Dunfermline, fail to deliver. The model had tipped a home win with a 36% probability, but the result was a stalemate, so the model’s call was wrong. The match ended 0-0, matching the most likely score of 1-1? actually 0-0 had 8.2% chance. The model’s selection of Over 1.5, at 75.6%, missed, while Under 3.5, at 72.3%, hit. Dunfermline had just come off a win, their recent run noted as “coming off a win,” while Queen’s Park had drawn their last match. Both sides finished the game level, leaving the prediction model’s favourite disappointed.