Dunfermline’s attacking form at home is striking, averaging 3.5 goals per game against weaker opposition, while Ross County’s away record shows only 1.17 goals scored and a single goal conceded per match against stronger teams. This disparity points to a high-scoring affair, with the model predicting an average of 3.5 goals and the most likely total of three goals at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1 % chance. The model favours a home win, assigning a 50 % chance to Dunfermline, 23 % to a draw, and 27 % to Ross County. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 97.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1 %, Under 6.5 goals at 93.8 %, Under 5.5 cards at 92.8 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 92.2 %, Home +2 handicap at 87.6 % (hit), Over 1.5 at 86.9 % (hit), and Home over 0.5 goals at 86.6 % (hit). The recent form narrative shows Dunfermline struggling after two straight defeats, whereas Ross County rides a five-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Ross County snatched a 2-1 victory over Dunfermline, overturning the model’s home-win call. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 50 % probability, but the result was an away win. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, with Ross County’s lone goal coming in the second half. The model’s other picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals (97.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Under 6.5 (93.8 %), Home +2 handicap (87.6 %), Over 1.5 (86.9 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (86.6 %). Dunfermline’s recent form was a 2-straight-defeat streak, while Ross County rode a five-game winning run.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ross County win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.87
1.94
0.50
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.62
0.85
1.71
0.50
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.07
1.67
1.08
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.07
1.55
1.09
0.76
1.06
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-2 ✓
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.5%
Dunfermline goals ↓
Ross County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
1
5.4%
10%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
2
6.4%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.3%
6.2%
4.5%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.1%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunfermline goals (down), columns = Ross County goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Falkirk
2.00
Motherwell
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Dunfermline is 0.50 points better than Ross County in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Falkirk
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Ross County
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Dunfermline is 0.50 goals worse than Ross County in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 2.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Forfar
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Dunfermline is 0.25 goals worse than Ross County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunfermline
For 4.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
For 4.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.2
8.4
1.2
0.7
1.6
20.8
23.0
19.5
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (44)
8.2
7.0
8.9
1.2
0.8
1.7
21.1
22.8
20.1
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
31%
20%
38%
18%
8%
28%
54%
60%
50%
% under line
69%
80%
62%
82%
92%
72%
46%
40%
50%
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.3
8.1
1.1
1.3
1.0
21.1
19.7
22.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
8.2
8.3
8.1
1.2
1.4
1.0
21.1
19.7
22.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
29%
29%
29%
18%
25%
12%
62%
57%
67%
% under line
71%
71%
71%
82%
75%
88%
38%
43%
33%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Morton
10.9
Celtic
10.8
Hibernian
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hamilton Academical
10.5
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Rangers
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Brechin
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Alloa Athletic
10.0
Ayr Utd
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Clyde
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Falkirk
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Forfar
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Peterhead
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.5
Motherwell
8.3
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Morton
4.5
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Partick
4.4
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Celtic
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.5
Brechin
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Queen's Park
2.5
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
Rangers
26.0
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.5
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Hibernian
23.4
East Fife
22.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Montrose
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Ayr Utd
22.0
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Clyde
21.7
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.3
Stirling
21.1
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Brechin
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.4%
Under 9.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
28.8%
Under 21.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dunfermline or Draw✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
23%
27%
covers Dunfermline + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline or Ross County✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
23%
27%
covers Dunfermline + Ross County
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ross County✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
23%
27%
covers Draw + Ross County
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dunfermline, so a minus line means Dunfermline give that many goals of a start and Ross County receive them. At -1, Dunfermline must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dunfermline win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Ross County
Dunfermline -2
14.1%
Draw -2
15.3%
Ross County +2
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Ross County
Dunfermline -1
29.4%
Draw -1
20.3%
Ross County +1
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dunfermline)Actual: Draw
Dunfermline +1
73.1%
Draw +1
14.4%
Ross County -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dunfermline)Actual: Dunfermline
Dunfermline +2
87.6%
Draw +2
7.9%
Ross County -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.42
0.86
0.29
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
1.08
0.92
0.28
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.68
1.00
0.91
0.24
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.94
0.25
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.42
0.86
0.21
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.58
0.17
0.67
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.39
0.55
0.18
0.53
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Dunfermline's squad is €3m more valuable than Ross County's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dunfermline's attack is €2m more valuable than Ross County's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dunfermline and Ross County have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Dunfermline's defence is €1m more valuable than Ross County's (€2m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South