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Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 06/05/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 3-1
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Vs
31%
25%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Dungannon Swifts a 31% win probability against Carrick Rangers in the Northern-Ireland: Premiership on 2026-05-06, with 25% for the draw and 44% for Carrick Rangers. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%).

Results analysis

Dungannon Swifts finished 3-1 against Carrick Rangers (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 31% home win, 25% draw and 44% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dungannon Swifts win✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-814L01L31W12L01L12L13L05L01L08LH·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.001.671.330.732.67
vs Stronger (19)0.952.421.451.640.253.50
vs Similar (11)1.641.272.250.501.291.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W11D01L12L20W61W11D23L30W32WA·LAR20/02H·BAN28/02A·GLE03/03A·BAL14/03H·LIN20/03H·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.531.811.691.711.36
vs Stronger (15)1.401.601.001.751.861.43
vs Similar (15)2.131.472.621.621.571.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
1-3
5.3%
0-0
5.0%
Dungannon Swifts goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
05.0%6.0%6.2%3.6%1.6%
14.8%11%9.0%5.3%2.4%
24.2%7.5%6.6%3.9%1.7%
32.1%3.6%3.2%1.9%0.8%
40.8%1.3%1.2%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dungannon Swifts goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Dungannon Swifts is 0.09 points worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Dungannon Swifts is 0.50 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.67).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Dungannon Swifts is 0.44 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D30W02L01L11D11D03L00D03LH·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.871.070.530.271.20
vs Stronger (19)0.581.051.000.730.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.820.551.250.000.570.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D00D00D10W21W01L11D20W01LA·LAR20/02H·BAN28/02A·GLE03/03A·BAL14/03H·LIN20/03H·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.600.880.751.070.43
vs Stronger (15)0.930.670.621.001.290.29
vs Similar (15)1.000.531.120.500.860.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
DS wins
1
Draws
3
CR wins

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from DS
DateH/AGameScore
24/01/26ACarrick Rangers Vs DS5-1
13/12/25ACarrick Rangers Vs DS3-3
23/08/25HDS Vs Carrick Rangers0-2
15/02/25HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
23/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs DS0-1
28/09/24HDS Vs Carrick Rangers4-0
06/04/24HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-2
17/02/24ACarrick Rangers Vs DS2-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ALarne Vs DS8-0
18/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
11/04/26AGlentoran Vs DS5-0
07/04/26HDS Vs Linfield1-3
28/03/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-2
21/03/26HDS Vs Bangor0-1
13/03/26ALarne Vs DS2-1
28/02/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC3-1
21/02/26APortadown Vs DS1-0
17/02/26HDS Vs Linfield1-4

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CR2-3
18/04/26ABangor Vs CR0-3
11/04/26HCR Vs Ballymena United2-3
07/04/26APortadown Vs CR1-1
28/03/26HCR Vs Crusaders FC6-1
20/03/26HCR Vs Linfield2-0
14/03/26ABallymena United Vs CR2-1
03/03/26AGlentoran Vs CR1-0
28/02/26HCR Vs Bangor1-1
20/02/26ALarne Vs CR2-3

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.26
HomeLWLLL1.48
AwayLLLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals2.983.002.96
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %52%60%44%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.081.320.84
Conceded1.901.682.12
BTTS38%48%28%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.38
HomeDDWWL1.38
AwayLLDWW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals3.143.123.17
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.621.581.67
Conceded1.521.541.50
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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